Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management Evaluating Regional ContraFlow and Phased Evacuation Strategies for Texas Using a Large-Scale Dynamic Traffic Simulation and Assignment Approach

After Hurricane Rita, the need for systematic and quantitative assessments of evacuation planning and operations strategies was recognized. Both contra-flow operation and phased evacuation were put into rigorous analysis through a large-scale regional traffic simulation modeling approach. After extensive data preparation and model developments, the Central Texas Evacuation network (CTE) in Dynamic Urban Systems in Transportation (DynusT) was created. The analysis results are presented and elaborated through relevant measures of effectiveness as well as innovative visualization techniques in this paper. The results show that the contra-flow strategy yields considerable improvements in all evacuation corridors in spite of several hot spots requiring further mitigation. The phased evacuation strategy in conjunction with the contra-flow strategy brings forth further improvements, particularly for the coastal high risk zones.

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