ADF를 사용한 유전프로그래밍 기반 비선형 회귀분석 기법 개선 및 풍속 예보 보정 응용

A linear regression is widely used for prediction problem, but it is hard to manage an irregular nature of nonlinear system. Although nonlinear regression methods have been adopted, most of them are only fit to low and limited structure problem with small number of independent variables. However, real-world problem, such as weather prediction required complex nonlinear regression with large number of variables. GP(Genetic Programming) based evolutionary nonlinear regression method is an efficient approach to attach the challenging problem. This paper introduces the improvement of an GP based nonlinear regression method using ADF(Automatically Defined Function). It is believed ADFs allow the evolution of modular solutions and, consequently, improve the performance of the GP technique. The suggested ADF based GP nonlinear regression methods are compared with UM, MLR, and previous GP method for 3 days prediction of wind speed using MOS(Model Output Statistics) for partial South Korean regions. The UM and KLAPS data of 2007-2009, 2011-2013 years are used for experimentation.