Projected changes to extreme wind and snow environmental loads for buildings and infrastructure across Canada

Abstract Wind and snow are major environmental loads that are often considered in the design of buildings and infrastructure. To ensure safety of existing structures and to develop guidelines for future developments, it is important to evaluate how these design loads will be impacted by the anticipated climate change. This study evaluates projected changes to selected return levels of wind speed and snow water equivalent (SWE) and associated wind pressure and ground snow loads across Canada for the future 2071–2100 period. Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) simulations driven by two Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two future emission scenarios are used. The CRCM5 projections suggest some increases in the future 50-year return levels of wind speed and pressure, mainly due to changes in inter-annual variability of annual maximum wind speed, particularly for the central and eastern regions. As for SWE loads, results suggest general decreases for southern Canada and increases for northern Canada in the 50-year return levels. However, the projections, particularly for wind loads, vary considerably with the driving GCM and the emission scenario, suggesting that larger ensembles including more RCMs and driving GCMs will be required to better quantify uncertainties to support development of climate-resilient design standards and codes.

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