Analysis of Inspection and Maintenance Program for in-use motorcycle emissions in Indonesia

Motorcycle ownership increase rapidly in urban and rural areas of Indonesia during rapid growth of economic development. In order to reduce motorcycle exhaust emissions, Government of Indonesia and local government of several cities enacted Inspection and Maintenance program for in-use motorcycle. We apply bivariate probit model for the likelihood of CO and HC emission violations given a set of motorcycle characteristics which obtained from on-road measurement at Jakarta, Bandung and Surabaya in 2004. Maintenance quality and running kilometer per year play a significant role in determining the probability of emission test. Furthermore, GDP per capita and urban density influences personal motorcycle mobility per capita per year at city level data. Comparing estimation results among those cities, the results of Bandung differed significantly with Jakarta. In order to pass motorcycle emission test, empirical study confirm that high mobility at low population density is better than low mobility at high density of the city.