Traffic matrices: balancing measurements, inference and modeling

Traffic matrix estimation is well-studied, but in general has been treated simply as a statistical inference problem. In practice, however, network operators seeking traffic matrix information have a range of options available to them. Operators can measure traffic flows directly; they can perform partial flow measurement, and infer missing data using models; or they can perform no flow measurement and infer traffic matrices directly from link counts. The advent of practical flow measurement makes the study of these tradeoffs more important. In particular, an important question is whether judicious modeling, combined with partial flow measurement, can provide traffic matrix estimates that are signficantly better than previous methods at relatively low cost. In this paper we make a number of contributions toward answering this question. First, we provide a taxonomy of the kinds of models that may make use of partial flow measurement, based on the nature of the measurements used and the spatial, temporal, or spatio-temporal correlation exploited. We then evaluate estimation methods which use each kind of model. In the process we propose and evaluate new methods, and extensions to methods previously proposed. We show that, using such methods, small amounts of traffic flow measurements can have significant impacts on the accuracy of traffic matrix estimation, yielding results much better than previous approaches. We also show that different methods differ in their bias and variance properties, suggesting that different methods may be suited to different applications.