How to predict the unpredictable: On the early detection of terrorist campaigns

Despite relatively low levels of fatalities compared to other modes of conflict waging, terrorism contributes significantly to the perpetuation of violent conflict. New approaches to its prevention are therefore urgently needed. After a brief description of the concepts of terrorism and early detection, this article outlines a model for the early detection of terrorist campaigns, looking at long-term and middle-term preconditions (root and proximate causes) as well as short-term precipitants, in order to uncover underlying structures that enable and facilitate terrorist campaigns. Some preliminary results of an ongoing analysis, and the results of already completed studies in this area, form the basis for the indicators proposed at the end of the article. Before we turn to the early detection model, we first should define what we want to forecast, the more so as there is no universal consensus as to what constitutes terrorism. Depending on the point of view of the observer and the locus of political debate, and in the absence of a generally accepted definition, one “man’s” terrorist is still too often considered another “man’s” freedom fighter. Therefore it is easier not to classify groups or individuals as terrorist, but link the term to certain acts which produce terror (as well as other reactions) in target audiences. Terrorist acts are here identified as: