Comparison between MM5 simulations and satellite measurements during Typhoon Chanchu (2006) in the South China Sea

The fifth Pennsylvania State University and National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (MM5) is utilized to study the precipitation and wind speed during Typhoon Chanchu (2006). Five model experiments with different physical parameterizations and sea surface temperature (SST) distributions are carried out. It is found that the control experiment configured with the Blakadar boundary scheme, Resiner2 moisture, the Betts-Miller cumulus scheme and daily updated SST has the most reasonable precipitation. The MRF boundary scheme tends to simulate a dryer boundary layer and stronger vertical mixing, which can greatly reduce the intensity of tropical cyclone (TC), resulting in a smaller maximum wind speed but larger range of medium wind speed (25–30 m/s). Constant SST through the TC cycle provides more energy from ocean surface, which could cause a significant increase in TC’s intensity, thus resulting in the largest overestimation on rainfall and maximum wind speed. Longitudinally-uniform SST distribution before the rapid intensification could reduce TC’s intensity and heat fluxes, which can partially compensate for the overestimation of precipitation in the control experiment.

[1]  Jun A. Zhang,et al.  Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Tropical Cyclones by Comparison of In Situ Observations and High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Isabel (2003). Part I: Initialization, Maximum Winds, and the Outer-Core Boundary Layer , 2009 .

[2]  C. Velden,et al.  Impact of Satellite-Derived Rapid-Scan Wind Observations on Numerical Model Forecasts of Hurricane Katrina , 2009 .

[3]  Christopher A. Davis,et al.  The NCAR-AFWA Tropical Cyclone Bogussing Scheme , 2001 .

[4]  X. Zou,et al.  Studies on the Initialization and Simulation of a Mature Hurricane Using a Variational Bogus Data Assimilation Scheme , 2000 .

[5]  R. Boyles,et al.  High-resolution numerical simulations of Hurricane Isabel (2003) over North Carolina , 2007 .

[6]  C. Davis,et al.  A Report Prepared for the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) , 2001 .

[7]  C. Srinivas,et al.  Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization , 2007 .

[8]  Bin Wang,et al.  Improved track forecasting of a typhoon reaching landfall from four-dimensional variational data assimilation of AMSU-A retrieved data , 2005 .

[9]  R. Atlas,et al.  Surface Turbulent Heat and Momentum Fluxes over Global Oceans Based on the Goddard Satellite Retrievals, Version 2 (GSSTF2) , 2003 .

[10]  P. K. Pal,et al.  Impacts of Satellite-Observed Winds and Total Precipitable Water on WRF Short-Range Forecasts over the Indian Region during the 2006 Summer Monsoon , 2009 .

[11]  H. Pan,et al.  Nonlocal Boundary Layer Vertical Diffusion in a Medium-Range Forecast Model , 1996 .

[12]  Yubao Liu,et al.  A Multiscale Numerical Study of Hurricane Andrew (1992). Part I: Explicit Simulation and Verification , 1997 .

[13]  Y. Kuo,et al.  Rainfall Simulation Associated with Typhoon Herb (1996) near Taiwan. Part I: The Topographic Effect , 2001 .

[14]  G. Grell,et al.  A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) , 1994 .

[15]  Christopher S. Velden,et al.  The Impact of Satellite Winds on Experimental GFDL Hurricane Model Forecasts , 2001 .

[16]  Chun,et al.  Rainfall Simulation Associated with Typhoon Herb (1996) near Taiwan. Part I: The Topographic Effect , 2022 .

[17]  Y. Kuo,et al.  Numerical Study of a Typhoon with a Large Eye: Model Simulation and Verification , 2005 .

[18]  Chun‐Chieh Wu,et al.  Typhoon Initialization in a Mesoscale Model—Combination of the Bogused Vortex and the Dropwindsonde Data in DOTSTAR , 2008 .

[19]  Hui Yu,et al.  A High-Resolution Simulation of Typhoon Rananim (2004) with MM5. Part I: Model Verification, Inner-Core Shear, and Asymmetric Convection , 2008 .

[20]  Z. Qin,et al.  A NUMERICAL PREDICTION EXPERIMENT OF TRACK ANDHEAVY RAINFALL ROUND ABOUT TYPHOON FITOW , 2004 .

[21]  Scott A. Braun,et al.  Sensitivity of High-Resolution Simulations of Hurricane Bob (1991) to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations , 2000 .

[22]  Zhong Zhong,et al.  The effect of typhoon-induced SST cooling on typhoon intensity: The case of Typhoon Chanchu (2006) , 2008 .