Strategic Planning Amidst Massive Uncertainty in Complex Adaptive Systems: the Case of Defense Planning

In this paper I describe certain core problems of defense planning (Section 2), which have much in common with more general planning problems that arise in dealing with complex adaptive systems (CAS) characterized by unpredictability. I then describe concepts and methods that my colleagues and I have brought to bear with not-inconsiderable success. The concepts relate to managing risk and uncertainty (Section 3). These involve portfolio management and an emphasis on building blocks and at-the-time assembly of building blocks. The methods use measures of effectiveness focused on achieving flexibility, robustness, and adaptiveness. They involve exploratory analysis in large scenario spaces, and multi resolution modeling to facilitate such analysis. Such models often need adaptive agents. Human gaming, as part of a family-of-models approach, can also be helpful and even essential.