CVSS-based Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Cyber Situational Awareness and Countermeasure Selection

The paper suggests several techniques for computer network risk assessment based on Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) and attack modeling. Techniques use a set of integrated security metrics and consider input data from security information and event management (SIEM) systems. Risk assessment techniques differ according to the used input data. They allow to get risk assessment considering requirements to the accuracy and efficiency. Input data includes network characteristics, attacks, attacker characteristics, security events and countermeasures. The tool that implements these techniques is presented. Experiments demonstrate operation of the techniques for different security situations.