A scenario analysis of CO2 emission trends from car travel: Great Britain 2000–2030

This study projects CO2 emissions from car travel in Great Britain over the period of 2000-2030, by building various scenarios based on the 'I=PAT' identity. The results reveal the difficulty of achieving a modest CO2 target set in this study by changing either affluence (A) factor or technology (T) factor alone. In addition, even in the most optimistic scenario of changes in Affluence factors and Technology factors, it is very difficult to achieve the CO2 target as early as in year 2010.

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