People's Perceptions of Their Likely Future Risk of Criminal Victimization

Crime surveys typically ask respondents how likely they think it is that they will be a crime victim in the year after questioning. A three-wave longitudinal panel survey conducted in Trinidad was no exception. This design permits an examination of both the degree to which predictions are based on past experience and of the accuracy or otherwise of such predictions when compared to subsequent events. Analysis revealed that respondents typically do not base predictions on experience, are typically pessimistic and that this is not warranted by their subsequent experience. It is cautiously suggested that rather than be involved in probabilistic mathematical calculations, respondents are more likely to consult lay heuristics which may be utterly fallacious from the perspective of probability theory, but convenient and available, if rather gloomy, nevertheless.