Reliability assessment of hv/mv transformer-links for distributed power systems planning

A probabilistic methodology for the planning and reliability evaluation of distributed power systems is introduced. The core of the technique is the steady state uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo Simulation. In particular, the extreme loading scenarios for the HV/MV transformer link are investigated, by the application of the Stochastic Bounds Methodology. According to this, the influence of extreme aggregated load and stochastic generation to the system is defined by the extreme stochastic dependence structures between these input random variables. The distributions obtained can be used by the system designer for the quantification of the risk associated with the overloading of equipment. The application of the methodology in the case of a system with high wind energy penetration is presented and the principles for the modelling of dependent stochastic generation in distributed power systems are highlighted.