Stretching and Exploiting Thresholds for High-Order War

Abstract : This report describes how Russia, China, and Iran have used measures short of war to exploit and stretch U.S. strategic thresholds for high-order conventional or nuclear conflict in eastern Europe, east Asia, and the Middle East. Measures short of war include every action and tool at a nation-states disposal that might further the states interests without crossing the threshold into high-order and often-unmanageable interstate war. These range from simple negotiation to assassination to the use of military special operations forces. If applied in the right combinations, measures short of war can be used to achieve strategic objectives or to create room for further maneuvers against other, competing nation-states. Cunning and aggressive application of these measures can allow a nation-stateincluding the United Statesto reshape, or stretch, the negotiated, stated, or tacit thresholds for aggressive national behavior.

[1]  Cristina Florencia Poyatos Matas,et al.  War of Attrition , 1967, Nature.

[2]  Q. Wright The escalation of international conflicts , 1965 .

[3]  Dear Governor Lehman THE WHITE HOUSE , 1974 .

[4]  J M Legge,et al.  Theater Nuclear Weapons and the NATO Strategy of Flexible Response , 1983 .

[5]  FRaNk G. hoFFMaN,et al.  Hybrid Warfare and Challenges , 2009 .

[6]  Bruce Russett,et al.  Deterrence Failure and Crisis Escalation , 1988 .

[7]  E. Cohen,et al.  Bombing to win : air power and coercion in war , 1996 .

[8]  J. Miller Taking Off the Gloves: The United States and the Italian Elections of 1948* , 1983 .

[9]  Robert Jervis,et al.  Political Implications of Loss Aversion , 1992 .

[10]  J. Nye Nuclear learning and U.S.–Soviet security regimes , 1987, International Organization.

[11]  S. Bremer Dangerous Dyads , 1992 .

[12]  D. Shlapak,et al.  Conflict with China: Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence , 2011 .

[13]  P. Berger,et al.  Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace , 1950 .

[14]  R. Thaler,et al.  Anomalies: Risk Aversion , 2001 .

[15]  J. Levy Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations , 1997 .

[16]  Albert Wohlstetter The Delicate Balance of Terror , 1959 .

[17]  M. Halperin,et al.  Limited War in the Nuclear Age , 1964 .

[18]  J. Fearon Rationalist explanations for war , 1995, International Organization.

[19]  G. Kennan,et al.  Measures short of war : the George F. Kennan lectures at the National War College, 1946-47 , 1991 .

[20]  M. Rabin Risk Aversion and Expected Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem , 2000 .

[21]  A. George The Limits Of Coercive Diplomacy , 1971 .

[22]  R. Jervis Perception and misperception in international politics , 1976 .

[23]  M. Verheyden-Hilliard,et al.  National Security Strategy of the United States , 2002 .

[24]  B. D. de Mesquita The Costs of War: A Rational Expectations Approach , 1983, American Political Science Review.

[25]  A. George,et al.  Force and Statecraft: Diplomatic Problems of Our Time , 1983 .

[26]  Ryohei Asano Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History , 2000 .

[27]  H. Morgenthau The Four Paradoxes of Nuclear Strategy , 1964, American Political Science Review.

[28]  H. Sidky War, Changing Patterns of Warfare, State Collapse, and Transnational Violence in Afghanistan: 1978–2001 , 2007, Modern Asian Studies.

[29]  Duncan Snidal,et al.  Rational Deterrence Theory and Comparative Case Studies , 1989, World Politics.

[30]  Paul K. Davis,et al.  Looming Discontinuities in U.S. Military Strategy and Defense Planning: Colliding RMAs Necessitate a New Strategy , 2011 .

[31]  James O. Kievit,et al.  The revolution in military affairs and conflict short of war , 1994 .

[32]  Randolph M. Siverson,et al.  An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace , 1999, American Political Science Review.

[33]  G. Rose,et al.  Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy , 1998, World Politics.

[34]  Daniel W. Drezner Bad Debts: Assessing China's Financial Influence in Great Power Politics , 2009, International Security.

[35]  Frank C. Zagare NATO, Rational Escalation and Flexible Response , 1992 .

[36]  Lawrence Freedman Perception and Misperception in International Politics , 1978 .

[37]  편집실 [자료] 미 국가안보전략(A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement) , 1994 .

[38]  D. Snidal International Cooperation Among Relative-Gains Maximizers , 1991 .

[39]  Bruce Bueno de Mesquita,et al.  Sorting Through the Wealth of Notions , 1999, International Security.

[40]  C. Gray National Style in Strategy: The American Example , 1981 .

[41]  Kenneth N. Waltz Nuclear Myths and Political Realities , 1990, American Political Science Review.

[42]  Michael Beckley China's Century? Why America's Edge Will Endure , 2012, International Security.

[43]  S. Walt,et al.  Rigor or Rigor Mortis? Rational Choice and Security Studies , 1999, International Security.

[44]  Lawrence Freedman,et al.  The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World , 2005 .

[45]  J. Nye,et al.  International Security Studies: A Report of a Conference on the State of the Field , 1988 .

[46]  C. Falaster Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis , 2014 .

[47]  J. D. Morrow Game Theory for Political Scientists , 1994 .

[48]  A. George The “Operational Code”: A Neglected Approach to the Study of Political Leaders and Decision-Making , 1969 .

[49]  Jeffrey W. Legro,et al.  Is Anybody Still a Realist? , 1999, International Security.

[50]  Bruce Bueno de Mesquita,et al.  Toward a Scientific Understanding of International Conflict: A Personal View , 1985 .

[51]  Dangerous Ground: The Spratly Islands and U. S. Interests and Approaches , 2013 .

[52]  J. Donnelly Realism and International Relations , 2000 .

[53]  J. Fearon,et al.  Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War , 2003, American Political Science Review.

[54]  M. T. Fravel Power Shifts and Escalation: Explaining China's Use of Force in Territorial Disputes , 2008, International Security.

[55]  M. Taylor Fravel,et al.  China's Search for Assured Retaliation: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Force Structure , 2010, International Security.

[56]  Brian Fishman,et al.  Iranian Strategy in Iraq: Politics and 'Other Means' , 2008 .

[57]  B. B. D. Mesquita,et al.  War and reason : domestic and international imperatives , 1992 .

[58]  S. Harold,et al.  An “Assertive” China? Insights from Interviews , 2013 .

[59]  L. H. Bullis,et al.  The Congressional Research Service , 1982 .

[60]  A. Johnston Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History , 1995 .

[61]  Donald J. Trump National Security Strategy of the United States of America , 2017 .

[62]  A. Johnston Thinking about Strategic Culture , 1995 .

[63]  F. Gavin The Myth of Flexible Response: United States Strategy in Europe during the 1960s , 2001 .

[64]  R. Betts Surprise Despite Warning: Why Sudden Attacks Succeed , 1980 .

[65]  Owen R. Cote,et al.  Rational choice and security studies : Stephen Walt and his critics , 2000 .

[66]  Karl P. Mueller,et al.  Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century , 2008 .

[67]  Jack E. Vincent,et al.  Ratios of force and escalation in a game situation , 1971 .

[68]  Patrick M. Morgan,et al.  Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis , 1983 .

[69]  M. F.,et al.  Bibliography , 1985, Experimental Gerontology.

[70]  P. Davis,et al.  Modeling Adversaries and Related Cognitive Biases , 2003 .

[71]  J. Nichol Russia-Georgia Conflict in August 2008: Context and Implications for U.S. Interests , 2009 .

[72]  Thomas C. Schelling Bargaining, Communication, and Limited War* , 2008 .