Reducing Risk and Uncertainty in COSYSMO Size and Cost Drivers: Some Techniques for Enhancing Accuracy

An approach to modeling the risks involved with estimation at an early phase of the project is described. This approach is implemented in the COSYSMO systems engineering effort estimation model for purposes of addressing the specific challenges of risk in systems engineering. This approach provides a more realistic output that includes a probabilistic range of estimates that define the risk – and the likelihood of success – associated with the estimate rather than a single point estimate. This paper provides a framework for reasoning about this approach and an application on the model inputs (size and cost drivers) and output (effort). This approach provides systems engineers and managers the insight needed to make better informed decisions about the probability of a project’s success through the use of confidence ranges.