Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK

In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915–2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (<4 days) typically impact different stretches of coastline. The spring/neap tidal cycle prevents successive extreme sea level events from happening within 4–8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

[1]  R. Wilby,et al.  Stormiest winter on record for Ireland and UK , 2014 .

[2]  Andrew M. Sibley,et al.  Coastal flooding in England and Wales from Atlantic and North Sea storms during the 2013/2014 winter , 2015 .

[3]  T. Wahl,et al.  Determining return water levels at ungauged coastal sites: a case study for northern Germany , 2015, Ocean Dynamics.

[4]  Jennifer M. Brown,et al.  Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions , 2015 .

[5]  R. Nicholls,et al.  Future flood losses in major coastal cities , 2013 .

[6]  Kevin Horsburgh,et al.  A UK best-practice approach for extreme sea-level analysis along complex topographic coastlines , 2009 .

[7]  Y. Zong,et al.  A Historical Record of Coastal Floods in Britain: Frequencies and Associated Storm Tracks , 2003 .

[8]  R. Nicholls,et al.  A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels , 2010 .

[9]  Kieran R. Hickey Documentary records of coastal storms in Scotland, 1500- 1991 A.D. , 1997 .

[10]  Simon Parry,et al.  Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14 , 2014 .

[11]  Iris Möller,et al.  Southern North Sea storm surge event of 5 December 2013: Water levels, waves and coastal impacts , 2015 .

[12]  S. Lentz,et al.  Classical tidal harmonic analysis including error estimates in MATLAB using T_TIDE , 2002 .

[13]  Gabriele Villarini,et al.  On the temporal clustering of US floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns , 2013 .

[14]  M. Eliot,et al.  Global influences of the 18.61 year nodal cycle and 8.85 year cycle of lunar perigee on high tidal levels , 2011 .

[15]  F. Schenk,et al.  Inconsistencies between Long-Term Trends in Storminess Derived from the 20CR Reanalysis and Observations , 2012, 1205.5295.

[16]  N. Bernier,et al.  Predicting the frequency of storm surges and extreme sea levels in the northwest Atlantic , 2006 .

[17]  swright National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies , 2015 .

[18]  R. Nicholls,et al.  Trends in reported flooding in the UK: 1884–2013 , 2016 .

[19]  R. Nicholls,et al.  Rising sea levels in the English Channel 1900 to 2100 , 2011 .

[20]  Philip Eden Great British Weather Disasters , 2008 .

[21]  P. Woodworth,et al.  Sea-Level Science: Understanding Tides, Surges, Tsunamis and Mean Sea-Level Changes , 2014 .

[22]  C. Soares,et al.  44 years hindcast of sea level in the Atlantic Coast of Europe , 2008 .

[23]  G. Leckebusch,et al.  Was the Extreme Storm Season in Winter 2013/14 Over the North Atlantic and the United Kingdom Triggered by Changes in the West Pacific Warm Pool? , 2015 .

[24]  Kevin Horsburgh,et al.  A comparison of the 31 January–1 February 1953 and 5–6 December 2013 coastal flood events around the UK , 2015, Front. Mar. Sci..

[25]  R. Nicholls,et al.  A user-friendly database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915–2014 , 2015, Scientific Data.

[26]  M. Marcos,et al.  Long‐term variations in global sea level extremes , 2015 .

[27]  F. Calafat,et al.  Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise , 2012, Nature Communications.

[28]  High-frequency sea level variations and implications for coastal flooding: A case study of the Solent, UK , 2016 .

[29]  David B. Stephenson,et al.  Serial Clustering of Extratropical Cyclones , 2006 .

[30]  Nina Bellenbaum,et al.  Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions , 2013 .

[31]  E. Gumbel,et al.  EXTREME SEA LEVELS; THE JOINT PROBABILITIES METHOD REVISITED AND REVISED. , 1989 .

[32]  R. Nicholls,et al.  Reconstructing coastal flood occurrence combining sea level and media sources: a case study of the Solent, UK since 1935 , 2011 .

[33]  Jim W. Hall,et al.  The future of national infrastructure , 2016 .

[34]  B. Mandelbrot How Long Is the Coast of Britain ? , 2002 .

[35]  Dominic E. Reeve,et al.  The effects of storm clustering on beach profile variability , 2014 .

[36]  Melisa Menéndez,et al.  Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi‐global tide‐gauge data set , 2010 .

[37]  Robert J. Nicholls,et al.  Assessing changes in extreme sea levels: Application to the English Channel, 1900-2006 , 2010 .

[38]  Douglas LeComte,et al.  International Weather Highlights 2013: Super Typhoon Haiyan, Super Heat in Australia and China, a Long Winter in Europe , 2014 .

[39]  Matthew S. Mason,et al.  Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[40]  Jim Watson,et al.  Governance of interdependent infrastructure provision , 2016 .

[41]  P. Woodworth,et al.  Secular trends in mean tidal range around the British Isles and along the adjacent European coastline , 2007 .

[42]  David B. Stephenson,et al.  Serial clustering of intense European storms , 2009 .

[43]  F. Zwiers,et al.  Is the storminess in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis really inconsistent with observations? A reply to the comment by Krueger et al. (2013b) , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[44]  T. Stocker,et al.  Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2012 .

[45]  Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz,et al.  Large floods in Europe, 1985–2009 , 2013 .

[46]  M. McCarthy,et al.  The UK’s wet and stormy winter of 2013/2014 , 2015 .

[47]  P. Jones,et al.  The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project , 2009 .

[48]  R. Nicholls,et al.  Mean sea level trends around the English Channel over the 20th century and their wider context , 2009 .

[49]  P. Bernardara,et al.  Modeling intersite dependence for regional frequency analysis of extreme marine events , 2014 .

[50]  J. Hunter,et al.  A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise , 2012, Climatic Change.

[51]  Tal Ezer,et al.  Accelerated flooding along the U.S. East Coast: On the impact of sea‐level rise, tides, storms, the Gulf Stream, and the North Atlantic Oscillations , 2014 .

[52]  J. Pinto,et al.  The exceptional influence of storm ‘Xaver’ on design water levels in the German Bight , 2015 .

[53]  I. Haigh,et al.  A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record , 2014 .

[54]  James M Shultz,et al.  Mental health effects of Hurricane Sandy: characteristics, potential aftermath, and response. , 2012, JAMA.

[55]  Kevin Horsburgh,et al.  Tide-surge interaction and its role in the distribution of surge residuals in the North Sea , 2007 .

[56]  Houghton,et al.  A Special Report of Working Groups I and III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2014 .

[57]  Simon Parry,et al.  The recent storms and floods in the UK , 2014 .

[58]  I. Haigh,et al.  Global secular changes in different tidal high water, low water and range levels , 2015 .

[60]  I. Haigh,et al.  Spatial and Temporal Variability and Long-Term Trends in Skew Surges Globally , 2016, Front. Mar. Sci..

[61]  A. Hlaing Cyclone Nargis storm surge in Myanmar , 2009 .

[62]  Colin R. Thorne,et al.  Geographies of UK flooding in 2013/4 , 2014 .

[63]  R. Nicholls,et al.  Understanding a coastal flood event: the 10th March 2008 storm surge event in the Solent, UK , 2013, Natural Hazards.

[64]  T. Wahl,et al.  North Sea Storminess from a Novel Storm Surge Record since AD 1843 , 2014 .

[65]  B. Mandelbrot How Long Is the Coast of Britain? Statistical Self-Similarity and Fractional Dimension , 1967, Science.

[66]  Kevin Horsburgh,et al.  Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations , 2007 .

[67]  R. Crompton,et al.  Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[68]  M. Levitan,et al.  Loss of Life Caused by the Flooding of New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina: Analysis of the Relationship Between Flood Characteristics and Mortality , 2009, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[69]  R. Weisse,et al.  Storm-related sea level variations along the North Sea coast as simulated by a high-resolution model 1958–2002 , 2006 .