Coastal flooding risk calculations for the Belgian coast

This paper details the methodology which is used to perform a flood risk analysis for the Belgian coast. The coastal flood risk analysis aims at estimating the expected value of yearly consequences by coastal flooding for a given time horizon. To calculate the risk all sources of uncertainty are accounted for by using a pragmatic probabilistic method. To calculate the flood consequences for a given extreme storm surge, a chain of process models is used that describe the wave propagation towards the coast, the failure behaviour of the coastal defences, the flooding of the coastal plain and the resulting consequences (economic damage and human casualties).