Should sophisticated expectations facilitate reaching equilibrium behavior?

Abstract This paper develops a Cournot oligopoly best-reply dynamic with multi-order extrapolative expectations and examines the effect of these sophisticated expectations on the long-term equilibrium behavior. Interestingly enough, it demonstrates that more sophisticated expectations which require more effort for foresight should not necessarily lead to more stable equilibrium behavior than less sophisticated expectations which need less effort.

[1]  Franklin M. Fisher,et al.  The Stability of the Cournot Oligopoly Solution: The Effects of Speeds of Adjustment and Increasing Marginal Costs , 1961 .

[2]  Frank Hahn,et al.  The Stability of the Cournot Oligopoly Solution , 1962 .

[3]  Sameh S. Askar,et al.  Complex dynamic properties of Cournot duopoly games with convex and log-concave demand function , 2014, Oper. Res. Lett..

[4]  Gian Italo Bischi,et al.  Equilibrium selection in a nonlinear duopoly game with adaptive expectations , 2001 .

[5]  A. Zhang,et al.  Stability of a Cournot-Nash equilibrium: The multiproduct case , 1996 .

[6]  A. A. Elsadany,et al.  Dynamical analysis of a delayed monopoly game with a log-concave demand function , 2016, Oper. Res. Lett..

[7]  T. Vallée,et al.  Convergence in the Finite Cournot Oligopoly with Social and Individual Learning , 2009 .

[8]  Josef Hadar,et al.  Stability of Oligopoly with Product Differentiation , 1966 .

[9]  Kenneth J. Arrow,et al.  A Note on Expectations and Stability , 1958 .

[10]  Weijun Zhong,et al.  Nonlinear Cournot oligopoly games with isoelastic demand function: The effects of different behavior rules , 2012 .

[11]  Krishnendu Ghosh Dastidar,et al.  Is a Unique Cournot Equilibrium Locally Stable? , 2000, Games Econ. Behav..

[12]  Best Response Dynamics with Level-n Expectations in Two-Stage Games , 2012 .

[13]  Koji Okuguchi,et al.  Adaptive Expectations in an Oligopoly Model , 1970 .

[14]  Hamed Kebriaei,et al.  Cournot games with linear regression expectations in oligopolistic markets , 2010, Math. Comput. Simul..

[15]  Ferenc Szidarovszky,et al.  A linear oligopoly model with adaptive expectations: Stability reconsidered , 1988 .

[16]  Jeff S. Shamma,et al.  Dynamic fictitious play, dynamic gradient play, and distributed convergence to Nash equilibria , 2005, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[17]  Koji Okuguchi,et al.  Expectations and stability in oligopoly models , 1976 .

[18]  R. D. Theocharis On the Stability of the Cournot Solution on the Oligopoly Problem , 1960 .

[19]  R. Quandt On the Stability of Price Adjusting Oligopoly , 1967 .

[20]  Xing Gao,et al.  The stability of a Cournot oligopoly: the effects of adaptive expectations , 2013 .

[21]  Xing Gao,et al.  On local stability of Cournot models with simultaneous and sequential decisions , 2012, Math. Soc. Sci..

[22]  Majid Nili Ahmadabadi,et al.  Model-Based and Learning-Based Decision Making in Incomplete Information Cournot Games: A State Estimation Approach , 2015, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems.

[23]  A. Naimzada,et al.  A Dynamic Model of a Boundedly Rational Consumer with a Simple Least Squared Learning Mechanism , 2010 .

[24]  Spectral theory of Hamiltonian difference systems with almost constant coefficients , 2013 .

[25]  S. Huck,et al.  Learning in Cournot Oligopoly - An Experiment , 1999 .

[26]  Xing Gao,et al.  Stochastic Evolutionary Game Dynamics and Their Selection Mechanisms , 2013 .