Prognostic value of dobutamine stress echocardiography in predicting cardiac events in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease.

OBJECTIVES The study sought to determine the utility of dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) in predicting cardiac events in the year after testing. BACKGROUND Increasingly, DSE has been applied to risk stratification of patients. METHODS Medical records of 1,183 consecutive patients who underwent DSE were reviewed. The cardiac events that occurred during the 12 months after DSE were tabulated: myocardial infarction (MI), cardiac death, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), and coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). Patient exclusions included organ transplant receipt or evaluation, recent PTCA, noncardiac death, and lack of follow-up. A positive stress echocardiogram (SE) was defined as new or worsened wall-motion abnormalities (WMAs) consistent with ischemia during DSE. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis identified variables that best predicted future cardiac events. RESULTS The average age was 68+/-12 years, with 338 women and 220 men. The overall cardiac event rate was 34% if SE was positive, and 10% if it was negative. The event rates for MI and death were 10% and 8%, respectively, if SE was positive, and 3% and 3%, respectively, if SE was negative. If an ischemic electrocardiogram (ECG) and a positive SE were present, the overall event rate was 42%, versus a 7% rate when ECG and SE were negative for ischemia. Rest WMA was the most useful variable in predicting future cardiac events using CART: 25% of patients with and 6% without a rest WMA had an event. Other important variables were a dobutamine EF <52.5%, a positive SE, an ischemic ECG response, history of hypertension and age. CONCLUSIONS A positive SE provides useful prognostic information that is enhanced by also considering rest-wall motion, stress ECG response, and dobutamine EF.