The Comprehensive Hazard Assessment Model for the Consequences Caused by the Dam Failure Based on the Linear Weighted Method

This paper aims at introducing a renovated hazard assessment model for the consequences caused by the dam failure based on the linear weighted method.Since such dam failure hazard assessment involves a lot of correlative factors characteristics of uncertainties,it is necessary to avoid subjective factors as much as possible.In this way,linear weighted method is expected to make the complex uncertainty factors visualized.The method requires a thorough analysis and evaluation of the objects,serious coefficient of consequences which makes the evaluation results precise and persuasive.Moreover,the AHP method tends to take into account all the elements to weigh all the evaluation results concerned.As a case study,this paper tries the model to evaluate the consequences of dam hazard assessment of five reservoirs in Jiangxi Province.Dam hazard rating and consequence rating have actually been judged and identified by using the correlation analysis method.The results of our analysis show that the aftermath or consequences of the failure of the above five reservoirs are all serious which belong to the special events of the dam-breaks.Thus the trial of the model shows that linear weighted method tends to reflect the dam hazard level more objectively with its application procedures being simple and intuitive for operation.Therefore,it can be thought of as a promising method with great potential for future development.