Dependence structure between the equity market and the foreign exchange market–A copula approach

This paper investigates the dependence structure between the equity market and the foreign exchange market by using copulas. In particular, several copulas with different dependence structure are compared and used to directly model the underlying dependence structure. We find that there exists significant symmetric upper and lower tail dependence between the two financial markets, and the dependence remains significant but weaker after the launch of the euro. Our findings have important implications for both global investment risk management and international asset pricing by taking into account joint tail risk.

[1]  Thorsten Rheinländer Risk Management: Value at Risk and Beyond , 2003 .

[2]  Dennis W. Jansen,et al.  On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective , 1989 .

[3]  Andrew J. Patton Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence , 2006 .

[4]  T. Bollerslev,et al.  A CONDITIONALLY HETEROSKEDASTIC TIME SERIES MODEL FOR SPECULATIVE PRICES AND RATES OF RETURN , 1987 .

[5]  R. Rigobón,et al.  No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-Movements , 1999 .

[6]  Lorán Chollete The Propagation of Financial Extremes , 2008 .

[7]  Casper G. de Vries,et al.  A Global Perspective on Extreme Currency Linkages , 2003 .

[8]  Bill Ravens,et al.  An Introduction to Copulas , 2000, Technometrics.

[9]  Managing Foreign Exchange Risk , 1985 .

[10]  S. Satchell,et al.  Diversification when It Hurts? The Joint Distributions of Real Estate and Equity Markets , 2005 .

[11]  Ling Hu Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach , 2006 .

[12]  H. Joe Multivariate models and dependence concepts , 1998 .

[13]  Economic interdependence and flexible exchange rates , 1983 .

[14]  S. Kotz,et al.  Correlation and dependence , 2001 .

[15]  Andrew J. Patton Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths , 2006 .

[16]  Raul Susmel Extreme observations and diversification in Latin American emerging equity markets , 2001 .

[17]  R. Engle,et al.  Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns , 2003, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[18]  Philippe Jorion,et al.  The Time-Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets , 1988 .

[19]  H. Joe,et al.  The Estimation Method of Inference Functions for Margins for Multivariate Models , 1996 .

[20]  R. Chakrabarti,et al.  East Asia and Europe During the 1997 Asian Collapse: A Clinical Study of a Financial Crisis , 2001 .

[21]  D. Tambakis,et al.  Identifying International Financial Contagion Progress and Challenges , 2005 .

[22]  P. Embrechts,et al.  Risk Management: Correlation and Dependence in Risk Management: Properties and Pitfalls , 2002 .

[23]  F. Longin,et al.  Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets , 2000 .

[24]  R. Rigobón,et al.  No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements , 2002 .

[25]  Susan A. Murphy,et al.  Monographs on statistics and applied probability , 1990 .

[26]  René M. Stulz,et al.  Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements , 1996 .

[27]  Darrin Halcomb,et al.  Asset price bubbles: implications for monetary, regulatory, and international policies , 2002 .

[28]  S. Fischer,et al.  Exchange Rates and the Current Account , 1980 .

[29]  J. Tawn,et al.  Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications , 2004 .

[30]  R. Nelsen An Introduction to Copulas , 1998 .

[31]  Jeffrey A. Frankel,et al.  Monetary and Portfolio-Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination , 1987 .

[32]  A. Zeevi,et al.  Beyond Correlation: Extreme Co-Movements between Financial Assets , 2002 .