Analysis of trends in the Sahelian `rain-use efficiency' using GIMMS NDVI, RFE and GPCP rainfall data

Abstract Rain-use efficiency (RUE; the ratio of vegetation productivity to annual precipitation) has been suggested as a measure for assessing land degradation in arid/semi-arid areas. In the absence of anthropogenic influence, RUE has been reported to be constant over time, and any observed change may therefore be attributed to non-rainfall impacts. This study presents an analysis of the decadal time-scale changes in the relationship between a proxy for vegetation productivity (ΣNDVI) and annual rainfall in the Sahel-Sudanian zone of Africa. The aim is to test the quality of data input and the usefulness of both the RUE approach and an alternative method for separating the effects on vegetation productivity of rainfall change and human impact. The analyses are based on earth observation of both rainfall (GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project), 1982–2007 and RFE (Rainfall Estimate) (1996–2007)) and ΣNDVI (AVHRR GIMMS NDVI dataset, 1982–2007). It is shown that the increase in ΣNDVI has been substantial in the Sahel-Sudanian zone over the 1982–2007 period, whereas for the period 1996–2007 the pattern of ΣNDVI trends is more complex. Also, trend analysis of annual rainfall from GPCP data (2.5° resolution) and RFE data (0.1° resolution) suggests that rainfall has increased over both periods. Further it is shown that RUE values are highly correlated to rainfall, undermining the use of earth observation (EO)-based RUE (using ΣNDVI) as a means of separating rainfall impacts from other factors. An alternative method identify temporal trends in residuals of ΣNDVI, after regressing it against annual rainfall, is tested, yet is shown to be useful only where a high correlation between ΣNDVI and annual rainfall exists. For the areas in the Sahel-Sudanian zone for which this condition is fulfilled, trend analyses suggest very limited anthropogenic land degradation in the Sahel-Sudanian zone.

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