Atmospheric Predictability of Seasonal, Annual, and Decadal Climate Means and the Role of the ENSO Cycle: A Model Study

Abstract The characteristics of extratropical low-frequency variability are examined using a comprehensive atmospheric general circulation model. A large experiment consisting of 13 45-yr-long integrations forced by prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) variations is analyzed. The predictability of timescales of seasonal to decadal averages is evaluated. The variability of a climate mean contains not only climate signal arising from external boundary forcing but also climate noise due to the internal dynamics of the climate system, resulting in various levels of predictability that are dependent on the forcing boundary conditions and averaging timescales. The focus of this study deviates from the classic predictability study of Lorenz, which is essentially initial condition sensitive. This study can be considered to be a model counterpart of Madden’s “potential” predictability study. The tropical SST anomalies impact more on the predictability over the Pacific/North America sector than the Atlantic/Eur...

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