Enlistment Decisions in the 1990s: Evidence from Individual-Level Data

Abstract : The current recruiting environment is marked by recruiting targets higher than those in the drawdown period, increasing competition for resources, and reports that recruiters are having more difficulty in meeting their goals. Models that specify persons with different characteristics and predict the probability that they will enlist could thus help allocate current recruiting resources to target the most likely prospects. However, the most recent individual-level models of enlistment were estimated using data from 1980. Since then, many trends and events suggest that the enlistment likelihoods among different types of individuals may have changed. These trends include an increase in college attendance, shrinking youth cohorts, rising youth aptitudes, and an increase in the number and scope of deployments. In this report, we take several approaches to updating the principal economic model of enlistment decisionmaking with data from 1992 and 1994.