Can China meet its 2020 economic growth and carbon emissions reduction targets

Abstract As a developing country, China faces the dual challenges of economic development and environment protection. This study analyzes whether the Chinese government will be able to implement this win-win goal and how to achieve it in 2020. The results show that: (1) The annual contribution rates to GDP of comprehensive factors, human capital, fixed capital, fossil energy, and non-fossil energy during 1991–2013 were 33.97%, 14.17%, 15.47%, 14.91%, and 21.47%, respectively. China's economic growth mainly depends on fixed capital investment and the output elasticity of human capital to GDP is the highest. (2) Fossil energy consumption could be reduced by increasing human capital investment based on the substitution elasticity of human capital for fossil energy. Simultaneously, the technological progress of fixed capital and fossil energy is slower than that of non-fossil energy, which is conducive to the dual goals of economic growth and carbon emissions reduction. (3) To reach these goals in 2020, the inputs of human capital, fixed capital, fossil energy, and non-fossil energy must increase by 12.05%, 16.89%, 1.29 times, and 74.67% of the 2013 levels by 2020. (4) This study analyzes the means and conditions for China to meet their goal in terms of these constraints and finds that technological progress is the key to meeting the economic growth and carbon emissions goals in 2020.

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