论文信息 - Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-Based Indicators vs. Google Trends

Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey-Based Indicators vs. Google Trends

In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance of the new indicator is assessed relative to the two most common survey-based indicators the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confi dence Index. The results show that in almost all conducted in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting experiments the Google indicator outperforms the survey-based indicators. This suggests that incorporating information from Google Trends may off er signifi cant benefi ts to forecasters of private consumption. JEL Classifi cation: C53, E21, E27

Torsten Schmidt | Simeon Vosen

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