Modelling the effects of acid deposition: refinements, adjustments and inclusion of nitrogen dynamics in the MAGIC model

Abstract. The MAGIC model of the responses of catchments to acidic deposition has been applied and tested extensively over a 15 year period at many sites and in many regions around the world. Overall, the model has proven to be robust, reliable and useful in a variety of scientific and managerial activities. Over the years, several refinements and additions to MAGIC have been proposed and/or implemented for particular applications. These adjustments to the model structure have all been included in a new version of the model (MAGIC7). The log aluminium – pH relationship now does not have to be fixed to aluminium trihydroxide solubility. Buffering by organic acids using a triprotic analog is now included. Dynamics of nitrogen retention and loss in catchments can now be linked to soil nitrogen and carbon pools. Simulation of short-term episodic response by mixing fractions of different water types is also possible. This paper presents a review of the conceptual structure of MAGIC7 relating to long-term simulation of acidification and recovery, describes the conceptual basis of the new nitrogen dynamics and provides a comprehensive update of the equations, variables, parameters and inputs for the model. Keywords: process-based model, acid deposition, recovery

[1]  G. Hornberger,et al.  Comparison of paleolimnological with magic model reconstructions of water acidification , 1986 .

[2]  T. Sullivan,et al.  Modeling the Concentration of Aluminum in Surface Waters , 1998 .

[3]  H. Sverdrup,et al.  Modelling long-term cation supply in acidified forest stands. , 1993, Environmental pollution.

[4]  C. Beier,et al.  A correlative evaluation of nitrogen cycling in the forest ecosystems of the EC projects NITREX and EXMAN , 1995 .

[5]  B. Cosby,et al.  An acidification model (MAGIC) with organic acids evaluated using whole-catchment manipulations in Norway , 1995 .

[6]  Modelling acidification at Beacon Hill-a low rainfall, high pollutant deposition site in Central England. , 1993, Environmental pollution.

[7]  Bridget A. Emmett,et al.  Acid deposition, land-use change and global change: MAGIC 7 model applied to Aber, UK (NITREX project) and Risdalsheia, Norway (RAIN and CLIMEX projects) , 1998 .

[8]  R. Ferrier,et al.  A modeling study of long-term acidification in an upland Scottish catchment , 1988, Water, Air, and Soil Pollution.

[9]  R. Skeffington,et al.  Testing a catchment acidification model: ‘MAGIC’ applied to a 5 year lysimeter experiment , 1993 .

[10]  J. O. Reuss,et al.  Implications of the Calcium‐Aluminum Exchange System for the Effect of Acid Precipitation on Soils , 1983 .

[11]  R. Skeffington,et al.  Experimental reversal of acid rain effects , 1998 .

[12]  Paul Whitehead,et al.  Stream acidification trends in the Welsh uplands - a modelling study of the Llyn Brianne catchments , 1988 .

[13]  R. Wright,et al.  Modelling long-term hydrochemical response at ENCORE catchments in the UK and Norway , 1994 .

[14]  B. Cosby,et al.  Changes in acidification of lochs in Galloway, southwestern Scotland, 1979–1988: The MAGIC model used to evaluate the role of afforestation, calculate critical loads, and predict fish status , 1994 .

[15]  R. Wright,et al.  RAIN Project: Results after 8 Years of Experimentally Reduced Acid Deposition to a Whole Catchment , 1993 .

[16]  B. Cosby,et al.  Modelling stream acidification in afforested catchments: Long-term reconstructions at two sites in central Scotland , 1990 .

[17]  Magic applied to roof experiments (Risdalsheia, N; Gårdsjön, S; Klosterhede, DK) to evaluate the rate of reversibility of acidification following experimentally reduced acid deposition , 1995 .

[18]  Anthony W King,et al.  Aggregating Fine-Scale Ecological Knowledge to Model Coarser-Scale Attributes of Ecosystems. , 1992, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[19]  M. A. Tabatabai,et al.  Acid Deposition and the Acidification of Soils and Waters , 1988 .

[20]  B. Cosby,et al.  Influence of organic acids on model projections of lake acidification , 1996 .

[21]  B. Cosby,et al.  Use of a process-oriented model to predict acidification at manipulated catchments in Norway , 1987 .

[22]  I. Grieve A laboratory test of the soil chemical submodels of two models of catchment acidification , 1989 .

[23]  J. O. Reuss,et al.  Effect of soil processes on the acidification of water by acid deposition , 1985 .

[24]  R. Ferrier,et al.  Modelling nitrogen dynamics at Lochnagar, N.E. Scotland. , 2001 .

[25]  S. Ormerod,et al.  Restoring acidified streams in upland Wales: a modelling comparison of the chemical and biological effects of liming and reduced sulphate deposition. , 1990, Environmental pollution.

[26]  John L. Stoddard,et al.  Long-term changes in watershed retention of nitrogen, its causes and aquatic consequences , 1994 .

[27]  Effects of future N deposition scenarios on the Galloway region of SW Scotland using a coupled sulphur & nitrogen model (MAGIC-WAND) , 1995 .

[28]  Nils Christophersen,et al.  A Model for Streamwater Chemistry at Birkenes, Norway , 1982 .

[29]  A. Jenkins,et al.  An Assessment of the potential impact of the Gothenburg Protocol on surface water chemistry using the dynamic MAGIC model at acid sensitive sites in the UK , 2001 .

[30]  Aaldrik Tiktak,et al.  Review of sixteen forest-soil-atmosphere models , 1995 .

[31]  J. Schnoor,et al.  Evaluation of different approaches for modeling effects of acid rain on soils in China. , 2000, The Science of the total environment.

[32]  G. Hornberger,et al.  Modeling the Effects of Acid Deposition: Control of Long‐Term Sulfate Dynamics by Soil Sulfate Adsorption , 1986 .

[33]  John O. Reuss,et al.  Simulation of soil nutrient losses resulting from rainfall acidity , 1980 .

[34]  S. M. Hasan,et al.  Solubility and availability of sorbed sulfate in Hawaiian soils , 1970 .

[35]  C. Neal,et al.  Modelling long term stream acidification trends in upland wales at plynlimon , 1988 .

[36]  C. Alewell,et al.  Use of objective criteria for the assessment of biogeochemical ecosystem models , 1998 .

[37]  B. Emmett,et al.  Modelling the ecosystem effects of nitrogen deposition: Model of Ecosystem Retention and Loss of Inorganic Nitrogen (MERLIN , 1997 .

[38]  H. Birks,et al.  Modelling long-term acidification: a comparison with diatom reconstructions and the implications for reversibility , 1990 .

[39]  D. Bouldin,et al.  SULFATE SORPTION BY TWO OXISOLS AND AN ALFISOL OF THE TROPICS1 , 1979 .

[40]  B. Emmett,et al.  Predicting the Effects of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition in Conifer Stands: Evidence from the NITREX Ecosystem-Scale Experiments , 1998, Ecosystems.

[41]  R. Wright,et al.  The NITREX project: an introduction , 1995 .

[42]  R. Ferrier,et al.  A two-layer application of the MAGIC model to predict the effects of land use scenarios and reductions in deposition on acid sensitive soils in the UK , 1998 .

[43]  R. Wright RAIN project: Role of organic acids in moderating ph change following reduction in acid deposition , 1989, Water, Air, and Soil Pollution.

[44]  B. Emmett,et al.  Factors influencing nitrogen saturation in Sitka spruce stands in Wales, UK , 1995 .

[45]  Richard F. Wright,et al.  Nitrogen leaching from European forests in relation to nitrogen deposition , 1995 .

[46]  TIMOTHY J. SULLIVAN,et al.  Ecosystem Manipulation Experimentation as a Means of Testing a Biogeochemical Model , 1997, Environmental management.

[47]  B. J. Mason The Surface waters acidification programme , 1991 .

[48]  G. Hornberger,et al.  Modeling the Effects of Acid Deposition: Assessment of a Lumped Parameter Model of Soil Water and Streamwater Chemistry , 1985 .

[49]  J. O. Reuss,et al.  Acid Deposition and the Acidification of Soils and Waters , 1986, Ecological Studies.

[50]  J. M. Esser,et al.  Map of critical loads (sulphur) for coniferous forest soils in Norway , 1992 .

[51]  M. Alveteg,et al.  Identifying Potentials for Reducing Uncertainty in Critical Load Calculations using the PROFILE Model , 2001 .

[52]  B. Cosby,et al.  A dynamic model for assessing the impact of coupled sulphur and nitrogen deposition scenarios on surface water acidification , 1997 .

[53]  S. Syri,et al.  Derivation of Deposition and Nutrient Uptake Scenarios , 1998 .

[54]  M. Holmberg Dynamic models for predicting soil and water acidification: Application to three catchments in Fenno-Scandia , 1991 .

[55]  Alan Jenkins,et al.  Application of the magic model to the Norway spruce stand at Solling, Germany , 1995 .

[56]  N Oreskes,et al.  Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences , 1994, Science.

[57]  S. Gherini,et al.  Integrated Acidification Study (ILWAS): A Mechanistic Ecosystem Analysis , 1984 .

[58]  T. Sullivan,et al.  Modeling the acid‐base chemistry of organic solutes in Adirondack, New York, lakes , 1994 .

[59]  George M. Hornberger,et al.  Modeling the Effects of Acid Deposition: Estimation of Long‐Term Water Quality Responses in a Small Forested Catchment , 1985 .

[60]  G. Gaines,et al.  Adsorption Studies on Clay Minerals. II. A Formulation of the Thermodynamics of Exchange Adsorption , 1953 .

[61]  G. Hornberger,et al.  Historical reconstructions and future forecasts of regional surface water acidification in southernmost Norway , 1989 .

[62]  Mattias Alveteg,et al.  Reconstructing Historic Atmospheric Deposition and Nutrient Uptake from Present Day Values Using MAKEDEP , 1998 .

[63]  J. S. Kahl,et al.  The MAGIC simulation of surface water acidification at, and first year results from, the Bear Brook Watershed Manipulation, Maine, USA. , 1992, Environmental pollution.

[64]  E. Gjessing THE ROLE OF HUMIC SUBSTANCES IN THE ACIDIFICATION RESPONSE OF SOIL AND WATER: RESULTS OF THE HUMIC LAKE ACIDIFICATION EXPERIMENT (HUMEX) , 1994 .

[65]  Walter J. Murphy,et al.  ADVANCES IN CHEMISTRY SERIES: Numbers 15 and 17 Demonstrate Rapidly Crowing Interest in Documentation; International Conference To Be Held in 1958 , 1956 .

[66]  R. Wright,et al.  Gap closure: use of Magic model to predict time required to achieve steady-state following implementation of the Oslo protocol , 1999 .

[67]  Alan Jenkins,et al.  Modelling Surface Water Acidification Using One and Two Soil Layers and Simple Flow Routing , 1989 .

[68]  M. B. David,et al.  Chemical character and origin of organic acids in streams and seepage lakes of central Maine , 1991 .

[69]  G. Hornberger,et al.  Time scales of catchment acidification. A quantitative model for estimating freshwater acidification. , 1985, Environmental science & technology.

[70]  R. Ferrier,et al.  Predicting regional recovery from acidification; the MAGIC model applied to Scotland, England and Wales , 1998 .

[71]  E. Thurman,et al.  Biogeochemistry of aquatic humic substances in Thoreau's Bog, Concord, Massachusetts , 1985 .

[72]  Magic, Safe and Smart Model Applications at Integrated Monitoring Sites: Effects of Emission Reduction Scenarios , 1998 .

[73]  J. R. Kramer,et al.  Sensitivity analysis of a watershed acidification model , 1984 .

[74]  H. Seip,et al.  Assessing effects of acid deposition in Southwestern China using the magic model , 1991 .

[75]  R. Wright,et al.  WHOLE-CATCHMENT LIMING AT TJØNNSTROND, NORWAY: AN 11-YEAR RECORD , 1997 .

[76]  Barry G. Oliver,et al.  The contribution of humic substances to the acidity of colored natural waters , 1983 .

[77]  R. Skeffington,et al.  Experimental reversal of acid rain effects : the Gårdsjön Roof Project , 1997 .

[78]  B. Emmett,et al.  Impact of nitrogen deposition on nitrogen cycling in forests : a synthesis of NITREX data , 1998 .

[79]  Modeling perspective of the deforestation impact in stream water quality of small preserved forested areas in the amazonian rainforest , 1995 .

[80]  B. Cosby,et al.  Modelling stream acidification in afforested catchments: An assessment of the relative effects of acid deposition and afforestation , 1990 .

[81]  K. Rose,et al.  Systematic Comparison of ILWAS, MAGIC, and ETD Watershed Acidification Models: 1. Mapping Among Model Inputs and Deterministic Results , 1991 .

[82]  Robert B. Cook,et al.  Systematic Comparison of ILWAS, MAGIC, and ETD Watershed Acidification Models: 2. Monte Carlo Analysis Under Regional Variability , 1991 .

[83]  B. Emmett,et al.  Modelling the ecosystem effects of nitrogen deposition: Simulation of nitrogen saturation in a Sitka spruce forest, Aber, Wales, UK , 1997 .

[84]  C. Alewell,et al.  Describing soil SO42− dynamics in the solling roof project with two different modelling approaches , 1995 .