Prediction of and early Warning for Deformation and Stress in the Xiaowan Arch Dam during the First Impounding Stage

A hybrid prediction model based on the simulation of the complete process in high arch dams is proposed because of capacity shortage in the prediction of and early warning for deformation and stress in such dams during the first impounding stage. An early warning system for dam body deformation as well as dam heel and dam toe stress is established in this model. The warning thresholds are also clarified. Applications in the first impounding stage of the Xiaowan Arch Dam show that the model is practical and effective, and can provide highly accurate predictions. Early warning indicator thresholds for deformation and stress are reasonably set to provide warnings for abnormal situations. The model provides accurate predictions and effective warning methods for the safe impounding and operation of high arch dams.