Assessment of the on-ground risk during re-entries

Thepresentpaperoutlinesmethodswhichallow to quantify and monitor the on-groundpopulationrisk in the courseof a hazardousre-entryevent. The risk potential will bederivedfrom anobjectrelatedcasualtycrosssection,theendangeredgroundswath,andtheunderlying populationdensity. Meanswill bedescribedto performa long-termrisk assessment for agivenlatitudeband,anda short-termrisk assessment for a givennodallongitudeof the final re-entryorbit. In caseof residualmanoeuvring capabilitiesstrategieswill beoutlinedto manageandreducetherisk potentialby controllingthenodallongitude of thefinal orbit,andtheimpactfootprint. Theusefulness of theseconceptswill bedemonstratedfor thehistoricreentriesof SkylabandSalyut-7,andfor therecentre-entry of theMir spacestation.