A Simulation Model of Presidential Nomination Choice

Theory: Voters in a primary or caucus are unlikely to invest substantial personal resources in making their choice, but at the same time their choice-problem is complex. A mixed model of choice is presented with two steps: an elimination step that reduces the field of candidates considered seriously by the voter, and an expected-utility step that involves comparisons of the candidates in the reduced "decision set." Hypotheses: Voters use party affiliation, visibility, and viability to narrow the field of candidates. They then compare the expected-utility gains of electing any of the remaining candidates. If no clear preference emerges, voters consider their affect for the candidates and reconsider viability. Methods: We have written a computer algorithm to simulate the decision model for potential caucus and primary voters early in the 1988 nomination campaign. A significant strength of this simulation technique is that it allows us to model choice across all 7 Democratic and 6 Republican candidates. Results: The elimination step has a powerful effect in narrowing the field of candidates for nomination participants. Overall, the model accurately predicts choice across the options voters faced early in the 1988 nomination season.

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