Risk decision-making based on cloud theory and prospect theory for conditional maintenance of power transformer

As there is linguistic evaluation information in the decision-making of conditional maintenance for power transformer,a comprehensive evaluation model based on the cloud theory and prospect theory is proposed for it.Its comprehensive evaluation system includes the technological index,economic index and safety index.The cloud theory is used to represent the linguistic evaluation information,which realizes the reasonable transformation from qualitative concept to quantitative indication.TOPSIS is used to obtain the positive(negative) ideal scheme as its reference and the gray relation analysis is used to establish the positive(negative) correlation coefficient matrix.The positive(negative) ideal prospect value matrix and the model with the maximum comprehensive prospect value are built based on the prospect theory and its positive(negative) prospect value function,and its optimal weight vector is solved.The calculated maximum comprehensive prospect value is analyzed and the conditional maintenance policy of power transformer is determined.Case study verifies its feasibility and effectiveness and shows its higher sensitivity.