A model for estimating the probability of missile impact: Missiles originating from bursting horizontal cylindrical vessels

Past explosion events in process facilities have centered attention on the fact that missiles generated as the result of vessel fragmentation pose significant risk to personnel and process equipment and can trigger knock‐on or domino effects in industrial accidents. To promote the design of inherently safer facilities—and to enable more effective mitigation and control measures with respect to missile risks—it is necessary to perform missile risk analysis studies at the early design phase. To aid in such an analysis and to predict domino scenarios, it is essential to have models that can quantify (1) the probability of a missile impact on a target and (2) the consequences of the probable impact.