Communicating Forecast Uncertainty for service providers

Uncertainty is an inherent ingredient of forecasting and communicating it effectively is of great benefit. It helps users make better decisions, and it helps service providers manage the expectations of users for accurate forecasts. This paper addresses the issue of communicating forecast uncertainty. The emphasis is on how service providers can incorporate uncertainty information in their meteorological forecast services, including the best ways to communicate this information to the benefit of users. Examples are given of effective presentation methods and some of the pitfalls are highlighted. Service providers are encouraged to use this information as a guide on how best to communicate forecast uncertainty and make it a routine and effective part of their service.