Safety Forecast and Prevention Method for Risky Flight Subjects Based on System Simulation

The current methods of flight safety prediction and prevention are mainly in managerial and qualitative level.Forecasting methods based on time series are lack of man-machine-environment physical considerations.In order to improve the transparency and rationality of flight safety prediction,analysis of types and advantages and disadvantages of flight safety prediction and prevention is done,and a flight safety forecast and prevention method based on simulation of man-aircraft-environment complex system is proposed.The subject of "high velocity at low altitude" in GJB 626A—2006 is used as an example,through underlying hazard analysis,the two liable accident chains in the flight subject are given.The reliability model of failure element is established.Accident scene is simulated based on man-machine modeling.Flight safety of high risk subject is quantitatively assessed by using Extreme Value Theory and Markovian method,and flight accident prevention methods are proposed.