Estimation of collapse moment for the wall-thinned pipe bends using fuzzy model identification

In this work, the collapse moment due to wall-thinned defects is estimated through fuzzy model identification. A subtractive clustering method is used as the basis of a fast and robust algorithm for identifying the fuzzy model. The fuzzy model is optimized by a genetic algorithm combined with a least squares method. The developed fuzzy model has been applied to the numerical data obtained from the finite element analysis. Principal component analysis is used to preprocess the input signals into the fuzzy model to reduce the sensitivity to the input change and the fuzzy model are trained by using the data set prepared for training (training data) and verified by using another data set different (independent) from the training data. Also, three fuzzy models are trained, respectively, for three data sets divided into the three classes of extrados, intrados, and crown defects, which is because they have different characteristics. The relative root mean square (RMS) errors of the estimated collapse moment are 0.5397% for the training data and 0.8673% for the test data. It is known from this result that the fuzzy models are sufficiently accurate to be used in the integrity evaluation of wall-thinned pipe bends and elbows.

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