Bayesian Knowledge Fusion in Prognostics and Health Management—A Case Study

In the past few years, a research effort has been in progress at University of Maryland to develop a Bayesian framework based on Physics of Failure (PoF) for risk assessment and fleet management of aging airframes. Despite significant achievements in modelling of crack growth behavior using fracture mechanics, it is still of great interest to find practical techniques for monitoring the crack growth instances using nondestructive inspection and to integrate such inspection results with the fracture mechanics models to improve the predictions. The ultimate goal of this effort is to develop an integrated probabilistic framework for utilizing all of the available information to come up with enhanced (less uncertain) predictions for structural health of the aircraft in future missions. Such information includes material level fatigue models and test data, health monitoring measurements and inspection field data. In this paper, a case study of using Bayesian fusion technique for integrating information from mu...