A fuzzy MCDM approach for stock selection

A fuzzy MCDM approach is applied to the stock selection problem, where the proposed approach can deal with qualitative information in addition to quantitative information. A hierarchy of major–sub criteria is then established to reduce the dependence between criteria. The ratings of alternatives versus qualitative sub-criteria and the weights of major- and sub-criteria are assessed in linguistic terms represented by fuzzy numbers. Each sub-criterion is in a benefit, cost, or balanced nature. New standardization methods for fuzzy numbers in the cost and balanced nature are presented. The algorithms of membership functions of the final aggregation are completely developed instead of approximation. The final aggregations in fuzzy numbers are then defuzzified to crisp values in order to rank the performance of alternatives. Moreover, the ratio of market price to performance (PP) is suggested to filter the over/under-pricing of alternatives. A set of buying/selling strategies are recommended according to the performance and PP. An empirical example then demonstrates the processing of the proposed approach.

[1]  R. C. Merton,et al.  Theory of Rational Option Pricing , 2015, World Scientific Reference on Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance.

[2]  John Hunter,et al.  Fuzzy interval methods in investment risk appraisal , 2004, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[3]  Y. Ku,et al.  Introduction to fuzzy arithmetic—theory and applications : Arnold Kaufmann and Madan M. Gupta. 351 pages, diagrams, figures. Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, New York, 1985. , 1986 .

[4]  Ching-Hsue Cheng,et al.  A new approach for ranking fuzzy numbers by distance method , 1998, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[5]  Jing-Shing Yao,et al.  Ranking fuzzy numbers based on decomposition principle and signed distance , 2000, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[6]  Ching-Lai Hwang,et al.  Multiple Attribute Decision Making: Methods and Applications - A State-of-the-Art Survey , 1981, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems.

[7]  James A. Ohlson Earnings, Book Values, and Dividends in Equity Valuation* , 1995 .

[8]  W. Sharpe CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* , 1964 .

[9]  Marc Roubens,et al.  Ranking and defuzzification methods based on area compensation , 1996, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[10]  S. Ross The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing , 1976 .

[11]  A. Kaufmann,et al.  Introduction to fuzzy arithmetic : theory and applications , 1986 .

[12]  F. Modigliani,et al.  DIVIDEND POLICY, GROWTH, AND THE VALUATION OF SHARES , 1961 .

[13]  Chung-Tsen Tsao,et al.  Evaluating investment values of stocks using a fuzzy TOPSIS approach , 2003 .

[14]  D. Dubois,et al.  Operations on fuzzy numbers , 1978 .

[15]  Kathrin Klamroth,et al.  An MCDM approach to portfolio optimization , 2004, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[16]  Ta-Chung Chu,et al.  AN IMPROVED FUZZY MCDM MODEL BASED ON IDEAL AND ANTI-IDEAL CONCEPTS , 2002 .

[17]  T. Chu,et al.  Ranking fuzzy numbers with an area between the centroid point and original point , 2002 .

[18]  Madan M. Gupta,et al.  Introduction to Fuzzy Arithmetic , 1991 .

[19]  Ta-Chung Chu,et al.  A Novel Defuzzifying Approach to Car Evaluation and Selection Under Fuzzy Environment , 2002, Int. J. Uncertain. Fuzziness Knowl. Based Syst..

[20]  Hsien-Chung Wu,et al.  Pricing European options based on the fuzzy pattern of Black-Scholes formula , 2004, Comput. Oper. Res..

[21]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  The Concepts of a Linguistic Variable and its Application to Approximate Reasoning , 1975 .

[22]  F. Choobineh,et al.  An index for ordering fuzzy numbers , 1993 .

[23]  Hussein Dourra,et al.  Investment using technical analysis and fuzzy logic , 2002, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[24]  Soheil Sadi-Nezhad,et al.  Ranking fuzzy numbers by preference ratio , 2001, Fuzzy Sets Syst..

[25]  Chen-Tung Chen,et al.  Fuzzy Credibility Relation Method for Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Problems , 1997, Inf. Sci..

[26]  G. Edwards,et al.  The Theory of Investment Value. , 1939 .

[27]  Zdenek Zmeskal,et al.  Application of the Fuzzy - Stochastic Methodology to Appraising the Firm Value as a European Call Option , 2001, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[28]  F. Black,et al.  The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities , 1973, Journal of Political Economy.

[29]  H. Lee-Kwang,et al.  Ranking fuzzy values with satisfaction function , 1994 .

[30]  J. Fred Weston,et al.  The Investment, Financing, and Valuation of the Corporation. , 1963 .

[31]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning-III , 1975, Inf. Sci..