Reducing Pollution from Aviation and Ocean Shipping

In October 2013, the International Civil Aviation organization (ICAO) announced that it would put in place a market-based mechanism to cap net greenhouse gas emissions from international civil aviation at 2020 levels. This chapter analyzes the obligations ICAO’s initial proposal for the mechanism would create for real airlines, and whether it would indeed succeed in keeping emissions at or below the desired level. In order to protect commercial sensitivities, the analysis begins by using hierarchical cluster analysis to identify groups of different types of airlines. The provisions of the ICAO proposal are then applied to these groups. We find that the ICAO proposal is somewhat poorly specified and ambiguous. Further, it is possible to interpret it in a way that would prevent net sectorial emissions from remaining capped at 2020 levels. We also find that, depending on their size and rate of growth, airlines will be required to offset very different proportions of their emissions from international flights. Exemptions from the scheme are poorly targeted. We conclude by recommending that ICAO design and implement a much simpler scheme, and target its exemptions more intelligently. This chapter draws on work done during a summer internship in 2014 at the Environmental Defense Fund with Annie Petsonk. It benefited greatly from feedback by and discussions with Annie, Pedro Piris-Cabezas, and Rafael Grillo Avilla. Any errors and omissions in this chapter are, however, entirely my own, as are the opinions and recommendations.

[1]  R. John Hansman,et al.  Estimation of Potential Aircraft Fuel Burn Reduction in Cruise Via Speed and Altitude Optimization Strategies , 2011 .

[2]  Jinhyok Heo.  Evaluation of Air Quality Impacts on Society: Methods and Application , 2015 .

[3]  B. Ellis,et al.  Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment 2009 Report , 2009 .

[4]  Volker Gollnick,et al.  Potential for Fuel Reduction through Electric Taxiing , 2011 .

[5]  J. Penner,et al.  Aviation and the Global Atmosphere , 1999 .

[6]  Joanne Potter,et al.  Transportation's Role in Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Volume 1: Synthesis Report and Volume 2: Technical Report , 2010 .

[7]  Unfccc.  Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change , 1997 .

[8]  J. Myong.  Health Effects of Particulate Matter , 2016 .

[9]  페리 아리에,et al.  System and method for transferring airplanes , 2007 .

[10]  C. Comberti,et al.  Research to assess impacts on developing countries of measures to address emissions in the international aviation and shipping sectors. Final Report , 2013 .

[11]  Gabrial Anandarajah,et al.  Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy , 2009 .

[12]  D. Ariely,et al.  “Coherent Arbitrariness”: Stable Demand Curves Without Stable Preferences , 2003 .

[13]  F. Robles,et al.  Segmenting the commuter aircraft market with cluster analysis , 1986 .

[14]  J. Edmonds,et al.  Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy , 2009, Science.

[15]  H. A. Wallio,et al.  SOx oxidation and volatile aerosol in aircraft exhaust plumes depend on fuel sulfur content , 1998 .

[16]  Olivier Boucher,et al.  Estimating the climate impact of linear contrails using the UK Met Office climate model , 2010 .

[17]  Tasos Nikoleris,et al.  Detailed estimation of fuel consumption and emissions during aircraft taxi operations at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport , 2011 .

[18]  J. Leggett.  Update on Controlling Greenhouse Gases from International Aviation , 2012 .

[19]  Harshad Khadilkar,et al.  Estimation of Aircraft Taxi-out Fuel Burn using Flight Data Recorder Archives , 2011 .

[20]  Juliet Page,et al.  Enhanced Modeling of Aircraft Taxiway Noise—Scoping , 2009 .

[21]  R. West,et al.  Chapter 7 Clouds and Aerosols in Saturn ’ s Atmosphere , 2009 .

[22]  Mark D. Wade.  Aircraft/Auxiliary Power Units/Aerospace Ground Support Equipment Emission Factors , 2002 .

[23]  T. Berntsen,et al.  Climate forcing from the transport sectors , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[24]  K A Smith,et al.  IDENTIFYING STRATEGIC GROUPS IN THE U.S. AIRLINE INDUSTRY: AN APPLICATION OF THE PORTER MODEL , 1995 .

[25]  Paul S. Fischbeck,et al.  Emissions from Ships , 1997, Science.

[26]  K. Kern,et al.  The External Dimension of European Union Marine Governance: Institutional Interplay between the EU and the International Maritime Organization , 2013, Global Environmental Politics.

[27]  Mike Mann,et al.  A Framework for Estimating the Marginal Costs of Environmental Abatement for the Aviation Sector , 2009 .

[28]  Erin H. Green,et al.  Mortality from ship emissions: a global assessment. , 2007, Environmental science & technology.

[29]  P. Eng.  CO2 emissions from fuel combustion: highlights , 2009 .

[30]  Peter Wallace,et al.  Cold Iron, A Maritime Contribution to our Environment , 2011 .

[31]  Bas Eickhout,et al.  Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs , 2007 .

[32]  A. Krajnc,et al.  The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming , 2003 .

[33]  E. Haites,et al.  Linking emissions trading schemes for international aviation and shipping emissions , 2009 .

[34]  Jonas Åkerman,et al.  Sustainable air transport--on track in 2050 , 2005 .

[35]  V. Eyring.  Second IMO GHG Study 2009, Presentation on Climate Impacts , 2009 .

[36]  Daniel Müllner.  Fast Hierarchical Clustering Routines for R and Python , 2015 .

[37]  D. Kodjak,et al.  Long-term potentiaL for increased shipping efficiency through the adoption of industry-Leading practices , 2013 .

[38]  Charles R. McClure,et al.  Measuring and managing performance in organizations , 1997 .

[39]  Allen L. Robinson,et al.  Fine particle and organic vapor emissions from staged tests of an in-use aircraft engine , 2011 .

[40]  Michael Milde,et al.  International Air Law and ICAO , 2008 .

[41]  H. Balakrishnan,et al.  Evaluation of strategies for reducing taxi-out emissions at airports , 2009 .

[42]  Severn Trent Plc.  Corporate Responsibility Report 2007 , 2007 .

[43]  G. Yohe,et al.  Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment , 2014 .

[44]  David S. Lee,et al.  Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation , 2009, Atmospheric Environment.

[45]  J J Corbett,et al.  Mitigating the health impacts of pollution from oceangoing shipping: an assessment of low-sulfur fuel mandates. , 2009, Environmental science & technology.

[46]  J. Corbett,et al.  Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping , 2010 .

[47]  S. Oberthür.  Interactions of the Climate Change Regime with ICAO, IMO, and the , 2003 .

[48]  Steven R H Barrett,et al.  Global mortality attributable to aircraft cruise emissions. , 2010, Environmental science & technology.

[49]  Tom G. Reynolds,et al.  A Survey of Airline Pilots Regarding Fuel Conservation Procedures for Taxi Operations , 2010 .

[50]  A. Robinson,et al.  Secondary aerosol formation from photochemical aging of aircraft exhaust in a smog chamber , 2010 .

[51]  G. Etiope.  EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2009 , 2009 .

[52]  David J Donatelli.  Evolution of US air cargo productivity , 2012 .

[53]  Saravanan Arunachalam,et al.  Assessing the impact of aviation environmental policies on public health , 2014 .