Arms control compliance: Information value of verification measures

Using concepts of decision analysis, this paper examines how government policy makers might consider and evaluate the contribution of additional inspection, openness, and confidence-building measures to diplomatic questions involving compliance with arms control agreements. During the current debate among parties to the Biological Weapons Convention as to what constitutes effective verification of compliance with that Convention, these analytical concepts were employed to evaluate some proposed inspection or confidence-building measures. Some of the salient points not bound up in the confidentiality of on-going negotiations will be summarized here.