Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition

Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies.

[1]  Armin Grunwald,et al.  Nachhaltige Entwicklung integrativ betrachtet : Konstitutive Elemente, Regeln, Indikatoren , 2001 .

[2]  Sven Teske.  Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals , 2019 .

[3]  Biagio Ciuffo,et al.  A systemic framework for sustainability assessment , 2015 .

[4]  Stefan Hirschberg,et al.  Sustainability Assessment for Energy Technologies , 2015 .

[5]  Hannah Kosow,et al.  Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis: Overview, Assessment, and Selection Criteria , 2008 .

[6]  S. Evans,et al.  The theoretical foundations of sociotechnical systems change for sustainability: A systematic literature review , 2019, Journal of Cleaner Production.

[7]  A. Azapagic,et al.  Sustainability assessment of energy systems: Integrating environmental, economic and social aspects , 2014 .

[8]  Joseph Alcamo,et al.  Chapter Six The SAS Approach: Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Knowledge in Environmental Scenarios , 2008 .

[9]  T. Agami Reddy,et al.  A new quantitative life cycle sustainability assessment framework: Application to integrated energy systems , 2019, Applied Energy.

[10]  Yevgeniya Arushanyan,et al.  Sustainability Assessment Framework for Scenarios - SAFS , 2017 .

[11]  Tobias Naegler,et al.  Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition—lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building , 2019, Climatic Change.

[12]  D. Thrän,et al.  Wind energy expansion scenarios – A spatial sustainability assessment , 2019, Energy.

[13]  Mario Martín-Gamboa,et al.  A review of life-cycle approaches coupled with data envelopment analysis within multi-criteria decision analysis for sustainability assessment of energy systems , 2017 .

[14]  Sven Teske,et al.  High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems , 2018 .

[15]  Sebastian Lehnhoff,et al.  Towards an Integrated Development and Sustainability Evaluation of Energy Scenarios Assisted by Automated Information Exchange , 2017, SMARTGREENS/VEHITS.

[16]  C. Breyer,et al.  Sustainability guardrails for energy scenarios of the global energy transition , 2018, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[17]  Nuclear Safety,et al.  Energy concept for an environmentally sound, reliable and affordable energy supply. , 2010 .

[18]  Valeria Ibáñez-Forés,et al.  A holistic review of applied methodologies for assessing and selecting the optimal technological alternative from a sustainability perspective , 2014 .

[19]  C. Rösch,et al.  Sustainability assessment of the German energy transition , 2018, Energy, Sustainability and Society.

[20]  Stephan Schmid,et al.  Energy [R]evolution 2008—a sustainable world energy perspective , 2009 .

[21]  Witold-Roger Poganietz,et al.  Building scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach , 2017 .

[22]  Ines Omann,et al.  Participatory scenario development for integrated sustainability assessment , 2009 .

[23]  G. Finnveden,et al.  Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective , 2017 .

[24]  Virginia H. Dale,et al.  Normalization in sustainability assessment: Methods and implications , 2016 .

[25]  A. Scolobig,et al.  Choosing the most appropriate sustainability assessment tool , 2012 .

[26]  A. Bond,et al.  Sustainability assessment: the state of the art , 2012 .

[27]  Frank W. Geels,et al.  Sociotechnical scenarios as a new policy tool to explore system innovations: Co-evolution of technology and society in The Netherland’s electricity domain , 2004 .

[28]  Christoph Schlenzig,et al.  Energy planning and environmental management with the information and decision support system MESAP , 1999 .

[29]  S. Simon,et al.  Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Energy Transformation Pathways: Methodological Approach and Case Study for Germany , 2020, Sustainability.

[30]  Ines Omann,et al.  Participatory scenario development for integrated sustainability assessment , 2009 .

[31]  Semida Silveira,et al.  Using a sustainability index to assess energy technologies for rural electrification , 2015 .

[32]  Hannah Kosow,et al.  Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches , 2020, Climatic Change.

[33]  Reinhard Madlener,et al.  New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria , 2007 .

[34]  Anthony Halog,et al.  Systems Thinking for Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment: A Review of Recent Developments, Applications, and Future Perspectives , 2017 .

[35]  Hannah Kosow,et al.  Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios , 2016 .

[36]  Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle,et al.  Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis , 2006 .

[37]  Angus Morrison-Saunders,et al.  Reconceptualising sustainability assessment , 2017 .

[38]  Volker Stelzer,et al.  Indicator-based Sustainability Assessment of the German Energy System and its Transition , 2018 .

[39]  A. Grunwald.  Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment , 2011 .

[40]  T. Pregger,et al.  Extended emission factors for future automotive propulsion in Germany considering fleet composition, new technologies and emissions from energy supplies , 2020 .

[41]  Sven Teske,et al.  Energy [R]evolution 2010—a sustainable world energy outlook , 2011 .

[42]  J. Pope.  Sustainability appraisal: a sourcebook and reference guide to international experience , 2015 .

[43]  Patrick Lichtner,et al.  Indicator system for the sustainability assessment of the German energy system and its transition , 2017 .

[44]  D. Štreimikienė.  A sustainability assessment in the energy sector : [monograph] , 2018 .

[45]  Nebojsa Nakicenovic,et al.  Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios , 2000 .

[46]  W Wim Zeiler,et al.  An assessment methodology of sustainable energy transition scenarios for realizing energy neutral neighborhoods , 2018, Applied Energy.

[47]  V. Duscha,et al.  GHG-neutral EU2050 – a scenario of an EU with net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and its implications , 2019 .

[48]  Arnim Wiek,et al.  Functions of scenarios in transition processes , 2006 .

[49]  Charlotte Senkpiel,et al.  Systemic Evaluation of the Effects of Regional Self-Supply Targets on the German Electricity System Using Consistent Scenarios and System Optimization , 2020 .

[50]  K. Riahi,et al.  Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices , 2014 .

[51]  Thierry Marchant,et al.  Evaluation and Decision Models with Multiple Criteria: Stepping Stones for the Analyst , 2006 .