RIDERSHIP FORECASTING CONSIDERATIONS IN COMPARISONS OF LIGHT RAIL AND MOTOR BUS MODES

From the standpoint of ridership forecasting, light rail transit (LRT) and motor bus modes vary in their attributes. Specific modal attributes (stations, passenger space and seating, ride quality, air pollution, noise, schedule reliability and safety, system identity and public orientation, familiarity) can be rated for LRT, busway, and street bus systems and analyzed. While LRT is rated highest in this comparison, the implications for mode choice behavior require more intensive research. Another factor in mode choice is the hypothesis that LRT and other rail transit modes have stronger potential to induce adjacent real estate development in contrast to busway operations. The results of a survey of perceptions of real estate decision-makers in eight U.S. cities operating either LRT lines or busways indicate that decision-makers tend to perceive LRT stations as significantly more desirable than busway stations for commercial real estate development. Respondents' perceptions regarding public orientation to LRT versus busway routes and service levels also score LRT higher but analysis did not determine this difference to be statistically significant. Improvements in the accuracy of ridership forecasting are essential, particularly in terms of differences between LRT and motor bus as alternative transit modes, and some approaches for further investigation can be defined.