Application of GM(1,1, ω~*)methods in the life prediction of mechanical systems

s:Aimed at the time series involved in life prediction of the failure elements in mechanical systems, the advantages and shortcomings of GM(1,1)in prediction are introduced. Meanwhile, the grey model GM(1,1)has been converted into a new predictive model of the GM(1,1, ω )to improve prediction precision. Because of the nonlinear correlation between ω and the prediction errors, as well as the discretization of ω values, the optimal approaching method is taken in this article to optimize the parameter ω *. A conclusion can be drawn that the accuracy of GM(1,1, ω *)is much higher than that of unoptimizable GM(1,1). Some practical examples show that the effect of the method is remarkable.