Forecasting US exports: An illustration using time series and econometric models

Forecasting exports efficiently enables policy makers to plan more appropriately and thus to help to improve the US balance of trade. Exports traditionally are forecast using econometric methods. This study focuses on a comparison of various simple time series models and an econometric model. The results show that simple time series techniques can forecast exports more accurately than can an econometric model. Future emphasis needs to be placed on complementary forecasting approaches, careful data analysis and understanding of the variables and forecasting environment.

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