Seasonal predictability of summer fires in a Mediterranean environment

In this study we explore the seasonal predictability of summer wildfires in a Mediterranean region (north-eastern Spain), developing a multiple linear regression model with antecedent and current-summer drought indices (Standardised Precipitation Index; and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index). This model is based on the assumption that large summer fires in Mediterranean environments are favoured by current-summer drought (proxy for the climatic factors that affect fuel flammability) and by antecedent wet conditions (proxies for the climatic factors influencing fine fuel availability and connectivity). We test three forecast systems based on (i) seasonal European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System-4 forecasts; (ii) persistence and (iii) climatology. These approaches are evaluated through a leave-one-out cross-validation over the period 1983–2012. The climatology forecast, which considers only antecedent wet or dry conditions with a time lag of 2 years, shows some amount of skill in simulating above- or below-normal summer fire activity. ECMWF System-4 proves to be of limited added value with respect to the climatology forecast. Finally, the persistence forecast, which is driven by antecedent conditions and drought conditions just before the start of the fire season, allows more satisfactory results (correlation of 0.49). The results suggest that long-term forecasts of above-normal burned area are feasible in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain), information that could be potentially applied also to other Mediterranean-type regions.

[1]  J. Gutiérrez,et al.  Assessing the Skill of Precipitation and Temperature Seasonal Forecasts in Spain: Windows of Opportunity Related to ENSO Events , 2010 .

[2]  R. Burgan,et al.  Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA , 2005 .

[3]  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Medium-Range, Monthly, and Seasonal Prediction for Europe and the Use of Forecast Information , 2006 .

[4]  Xavier Pons,et al.  Spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Catalonia, NE, Spain , 2004, Landscape Ecology.

[5]  José M. Gutiérrez,et al.  Assessing the predictability of fire occurrence and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain , 2014 .

[6]  R Core Team,et al.  R: A language and environment for statistical computing. , 2014 .

[7]  F. Pappenberger,et al.  Seasonal forecasts of droughts in African basins using the Standardized Precipitation Index , 2013 .

[8]  David R. Brillinger,et al.  Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk , 2004 .

[9]  D. Shindell,et al.  Driving forces of global wildfires over the past millennium and the forthcoming century , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[10]  Van Wagner.  Equations and FORTRAN program for the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System , 1985 .

[11]  Nicholas E. Graham,et al.  Conditional Probabilities, Relative Operating Characteristics, and Relative Operating Levels , 1999 .

[12]  E. Chuvieco,et al.  Fire regime changes and major driving forces in Spain from 1968 to 2010 , 2014 .

[13]  M. Krawchuk,et al.  Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire , 2009 .

[14]  T. Barnett,et al.  Long lead statistical forecasts of area burned in western U.S. wildfires by ecosystem province , 2002 .

[15]  G. Bonan.  Forests and Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and the Climate Benefits of Forests , 2008, Science.

[16]  Sean T. Michaletz,et al.  Predicting climate change effects on wildfires requires linking processes across scales , 2011 .

[17]  M. Turco,et al.  Testing instrumental and downscaled reanalysis time series for temperature trends in NE of Spain in the last century , 2014, Regional Environmental Change.

[18]  David J. Ganz,et al.  Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity , 2012 .

[19]  M. C. Llasat,et al.  Brief communication Decreasing fires in a Mediterranean region (1970–2010, NE Spain) , 2013 .

[20]  Ottar Michelsen,et al.  Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change , 2012 .

[21]  José M. C. Pereira,et al.  Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal , 2005 .

[22]  A. Hessl.  Pathways for climate change effects on fire: Models, data, and uncertainties , 2011 .

[23]  Pao-Shin Chu,et al.  Fire-climate relationships and long-lead seasonal wildfire prediction for Hawaii , 2002 .

[24]  P. Jones,et al.  A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006 , 2008 .

[25]  M. Turco,et al.  Impact of climate variability on summer fires in a Mediterranean environment (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) , 2013, Climatic Change.

[26]  Florian Pappenberger,et al.  Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia , 2014 .

[27]  F. Giorgi,et al.  Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region , 2008 .

[28]  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: status and prospects , 2013 .

[29]  Timo Pukkala,et al.  Characterization of forest fires in Catalonia (north-east Spain) , 2007, European Journal of Forest Research.

[30]  S. Vicente‐Serrano,et al.  A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index , 2009 .

[31]  George H. Hargreaves,et al.  Defining and Using Reference Evapotranspiration , 1994 .

[32]  T. Palmer,et al.  ENSEMBLES: A new multi‐model ensemble for seasonal‐to‐annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs , 2009 .

[33]  M. Flannigan,et al.  Climate change and forest fires. , 2000, The Science of the total environment.

[34]  A. Gobiet,et al.  Multi-variable error correction of regional climate models , 2013, Climatic Change.

[35]  Corinne Lampin,et al.  A Review of the Main Driving Factors of Forest Fire Ignition Over Europe , 2013, Environmental Management.

[36]  Andrew P. Morse,et al.  A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model , 2005 .

[37]  M. Turco,et al.  Impact of climate variability on Alpine glaciers in northwestern Italy , 2007 .

[38]  T. Swetnam,et al.  Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity , 2006, Science.

[39]  P. White,et al.  Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: the emerging conceptual model , 2007 .

[40]  Christopher I. Roos,et al.  Fire in the Earth System , 2009, Science.

[41]  N. Koutsias,et al.  Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling , 2013, Climatic Change.

[42]  John W. Benoit,et al.  Wildland fire probabilities estimated from weather model-deduced monthly mean fire danger indices , 2008 .

[43]  Anthony L. Westerling,et al.  Statistical Model for Forecasting Monthly Large Wildfire Events in Western United States , 2007 .

[44]  H. Akaike.  A new look at the statistical model identification , 1974 .

[45]  H. Juang,et al.  NCEP–ECPC monthly to seasonal US fire danger forecasts , 2010 .

[46]  Michael D. Dettinger,et al.  CLIMATE AND WILDFIRE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES , 2003 .

[47]  J. San-Miguel-Ayanz,et al.  Analysis of large fires in European Mediterranean landscapes: Lessons learned and perspectives , 2013 .

[48]  Robert Mavsar,et al.  The state of development of fire management decision support systems in America and Europe , 2013 .

[49]  A. Shabbar,et al.  Prediction of Seasonal Forest Fire Severity in Canada from Large-Scale Climate Patterns , 2011 .

[50]  José Manuel Gutiérrez,et al.  Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios , 2014, Climatic Change.

[51]  Nikos Koutsias,et al.  Where did the fires burn in Peloponnisos, Greece the summer of 2007? Evidence for a synergy of fuel and weather , 2012 .

[52]  J. Nichols,et al.  Determinants of extinction-colonization dynamics in Mediterranean butterflies: the role of landscape, climate and local habitat features. , 2014, The Journal of animal ecology.

[53]  J. Randerson,et al.  Forecasting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies , 2011, Science.

[54]  S. Seneviratne,et al.  Predicting above normal wildfire activity in southern Europe as a function of meteorological drought , 2014 .

[55]  O. P. Dube.  Linking fire and climate: interactions with land use, vegetation, and soil , 2009 .

[56]  Juli G. Pausas.  Changes in Fire and Climate in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula (Mediterranean Basin) , 2004 .

[57]  F. Moreira,et al.  Landscape--wildfire interactions in southern Europe: implications for landscape management. , 2011, Journal of environmental management.

[58]  A. Belward,et al.  GLC2000: a new approach to global land cover mapping from Earth observation data , 2005 .

[59]  Juli G Pausas,et al.  Evolutionary ecology of resprouting and seeding in fire-prone ecosystems. , 2014, The New phytologist.

[60]  Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz,et al.  The European Forest Fire Information System in the context of environmental policies of the European Union , 2013 .

[61]  T. McKee,et al.  THE RELATIONSHIP OF DROUGHT FREQUENCY AND DURATION TO TIME SCALES , 1993 .

[62]  Marco Bindi,et al.  Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area , 2006 .

[63]  M. C. Llasat,et al.  Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment , 2014, Climatic Change.

[64]  N. Nicholls,et al.  Forecasting fire activity in Victoria, Australia, using antecedent climate variables and ENSO indices , 2014 .

[65]  E. Dwyer,et al.  Climate and Vegetation as Driving Factors in Global Fire Activity , 2000 .

[66]  H. Storch,et al.  Statistical Analysis in Climate Research , 2000 .

[67]  Nikos Koutsias,et al.  On the relationships between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894–2010) , 2013 .