Time and cost risk analysis

Abstract The Project Management Group at UMIST has been involved with the development of project management software since the early 1970s, and has developed a construction project risk analysis program named CASPAR. Recently, the program has been further developed to include time-only probability analysis which reports the most frequently observed critical paths, the probability of achieving milestone dates, and the most likely completion data for the project. The original CASPAR program has also been extended to illustrate the effect of risks on both the cost and duration of a project. The results are presented in terms of ‘probability contours’ which quantify the probability of achieving values of both the cost and duration.