Bayesian inference of hydraulic properties in and around a white fir using a process-based ecohydrologic model

Abstract We present a parameter estimation study of the Soil-Tree-Atmosphere Continuum (STAC) model, a process-based model that simulates water flow through an individual tree and its surrounding root zone. Parameters are estimated to optimize the model fit to observations of sap flux, stem water potential, and soil water storage made for a white fir (Abies concolor) in the Sierra Nevada, California. Bayesian inference is applied with a likelihood function that considers temporal correlation of the model errors. Key vegetation properties are estimated, such as the tree's root distribution, tolerance to drought, and hydraulic conductivity and retention functions. We find the model parameters are relatively non-identifiable when considering just soil water storage. Overall, by utilizing multiple processes (e.g. sap flow, stem water potential, and soil water storage) during the parameter estimation, we find the simulations of the soil and tree water properties to be more accurate when compared to observed data.

[1]  Andrea L. Bertozzi,et al.  The porous media model for the hydraulic system of a conifer tree: Linking sap flux data to transpiration rate , 2006, Ecological Modelling.

[2]  Atul K. Jain,et al.  Using ecosystem experiments to improve vegetation models , 2015 .

[3]  M. G. Ryan,et al.  Evaluating theories of drought-induced vegetation mortality using a multimodel-experiment framework. , 2013, The New phytologist.

[4]  Mathieu Javaux,et al.  Model-assisted integration of physiological and environmental constraints affecting the dynamic and spatial patterns of root water uptake from soils. , 2010, Journal of experimental botany.

[5]  I. Noy-Meir,et al.  Desert Ecosystems: Environment and Producers , 1973 .

[6]  Christopher M. Gough,et al.  Species‐specific transpiration responses to intermediate disturbance in a northern hardwood forest , 2014 .

[7]  William J. Davies,et al.  Accounting for sap flow from different parts of the root system improves the prediction of xylem ABA concentration in plants grown with heterogeneous soil moisture , 2008, Journal of experimental botany.

[8]  Gil Bohrer,et al.  Tree level hydrodynamic approach for resolving aboveground water storage and stomatal conductance and modeling the effects of tree hydraulic strategy , 2016 .

[9]  T Vesala,et al.  Tree stem diameter variations and transpiration in Scots pine: an analysis using a dynamic sap flow model. , 2001, Tree physiology.

[10]  Frederick R. Adler,et al.  Limitation of plant water use by rhizosphere and xylem conductance: results from a model , 1998 .

[11]  Martin G De Kauwe,et al.  New developments in the effort to model ecosystems under water stress. , 2016, The New phytologist.

[12]  I. Rodríguez‐Iturbe.  Ecohydrology: A hydrologic perspective of climate‐soil‐vegetation dynamies , 2000 .

[13]  L. S. Pereira,et al.  Crop evapotranspiration : guidelines for computing crop water requirements , 1998 .

[14]  Jasper A. Vrugt,et al.  Calibration of a two-dimensional root water uptake model , 2001 .

[15]  Park S. Nobel,et al.  Drought-induced changes in soil contact and hydraulic conductivity for roots of Opuntia ficus-indica with and without rhizosheaths , 1997, Plant and Soil.

[16]  Van Genuchten,et al.  A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils , 1980 .

[17]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  Modeling Root Water Uptake in Hydrological and Climate Models. , 2001 .

[18]  R. Feddes,et al.  Simulation of field water use and crop yield , 1978 .

[19]  W. Larcher.  Physiological Plant Ecology: Ecophysiology and Stress Physiology of Functional Groups , 1995 .

[20]  Kathy Steppe,et al.  Stomatal regulation by microclimate and tree water relations: interpreting ecophysiological field data with a hydraulic plant model. , 2007, Journal of experimental botany.

[21]  Benjamin Smith,et al.  Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities , 2018, Global change biology.

[22]  E. Nikinmaa,et al.  Linking phloem function to structure: analysis with a coupled xylem-phloem transport model. , 2009, Journal of theoretical biology.

[23]  R. Scholes,et al.  An African Savanna: Synthesis of the Nylsvley Study. , 1993 .

[24]  Jan W. Hopmans,et al.  Frequency, electrical conductivity and temperature analysis of a low-cost capacitance soil moisture sensor , 2008 .

[25]  Willem Bouten,et al.  Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs. , 2018, Ecology letters.

[26]  F. Pugnaire,et al.  Water release through plant roots: new insights into its consequences at the plant and ecosystem level. , 2012, The New phytologist.

[27]  W. Bond,et al.  Diverse functional responses to drought in a Mediterranean-type shrubland in South Africa. , 2012, The New phytologist.

[28]  Christian Hellmich,et al.  Development and experimental validation of a continuum micromechanics model for the elasticity of wood , 2005 .

[29]  Elias C. Massoud,et al.  Emulation of environmental models using polynomial chaos expansion , 2019, Environ. Model. Softw..

[30]  Ashehad A. Ali,et al.  A global scale mechanistic model of photosynthetic capacity (LUNA V1.0) , 2016 .

[31]  R. B. Jackson,et al.  Ecohydrology in a human‐dominated landscape , 2009 .

[32]  Tomo'omi Kumagai,et al.  Modeling water transportation and storage in sapwood — model development and validation , 2001 .

[33]  J. Brooks,et al.  Branch junctions and the flow of water through xylem in Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine stems. , 2003, Journal of experimental botany.

[34]  Sebastian Bittner,et al.  Individual tree branch-level simulation of light attenuation and water flow of threeF. sylvatica L. trees , 2012 .

[35]  L. Kappen,et al.  Water and plant life : problems and modern approaches , 1976 .

[36]  David Kenfack,et al.  Climate sensitive size-dependent survival in tropical trees , 2018, Nature Ecology & Evolution.

[37]  H. Jones.  Plants and Microclimate: Other environmental factors: wind, altitude, climate change and atmospheric pollutants , 2013 .

[38]  Richard H. Waring,et al.  The contribution of stored water to transpiration in Scots pine , 1979 .

[39]  Jasper A. Vrugt,et al.  Uncertainty Quantification of Complex System Models: Bayesian Analysis , 2018 .

[40]  Kathy Steppe,et al.  A mathematical model linking tree sap flow dynamics to daily stem diameter fluctuations and radial stem growth. , 2006, Tree physiology.

[41]  M. Tyree,et al.  A dynamic model for water flow in a single tree: evidence that models must account for hydraulic architecture. , 1988, Tree physiology.

[42]  J F Reynolds,et al.  Biological Feedbacks in Global Desertification , 1990, Science.

[43]  Michael J. Black,et al.  Desiccation and survival in plants: drying without dying. , 2002 .

[44]  David Galbraith,et al.  Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro) , 2016 .

[45]  J. Sperry,et al.  Water Relations of Plants and Soils , 1995 .

[46]  W. K. Lauenroth,et al.  Small rainfall events: An ecological role in semiarid regions , 1982, Oecologia.

[47]  Miroslav Šejna,et al.  Development and Applications of the HYDRUS and STANMOD Software Packages and Related Codes , 2008 .

[48]  J. Vrugt,et al.  Approximate Bayesian Computation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation: DREAM(ABC) , 2014 .

[49]  R. Katz.  Techniques for estimating uncertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies , 2002 .

[50]  Jirka Simunek,et al.  Two-dimensional modeling of nitrate leaching for various fertigation scenarios under micro-irrigation , 2005 .

[51]  J. Famiglietti,et al.  Projecting groundwater storage changes in California’s Central Valley , 2018, Scientific Reports.

[52]  J. Vrugt,et al.  Toward diagnostic model calibration and evaluation: Approximate Bayesian computation , 2013 .

[53]  Brent Clothier,et al.  Water Use of Kiwifruit Vines and Apple Trees by the Heat-Pulse Technique , 1988 .

[54]  L. A. Richards.  Capillary conduction of liquids through porous mediums , 1931 .

[55]  André Lacointe,et al.  Modelling phloem and xylem transport within a complex architecture. , 2008, Functional plant biology : FPB.

[56]  E. D. Ford,et al.  Modeling tree water flow as an unsaturated flow through a porous medium. , 2002, Journal of theoretical biology.

[57]  Luca Ridolfi,et al.  Plants in water-controlled ecosystems: active role in hydrologic processes and response to water stress: I. Scope and general outline , 2001 .

[58]  Maria Manuela Chaves,et al.  Root functioning, tree water use and hydraulic redistribution in Quercus suber trees: A modeling approach based on root sap flow , 2013 .

[59]  J. Ehleringer,et al.  Transpiration and hydraulic strategies in a piñon-juniper woodland. , 2008, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[60]  Jasper A. Vrugt,et al.  Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation using the DREAM software package: Theory, concepts, and MATLAB implementation , 2016, Environ. Model. Softw..

[61]  Chonggang Xu,et al.  Our limited ability to predict vegetation dynamics under water stress. , 2013, The New phytologist.

[62]  J. Boyer.  Plant Productivity and Environment , 1982, Science.

[63]  Y. Mualem.  A New Model for Predicting the Hydraulic Conductivity , 1976 .

[64]  Michael M. Loranty,et al.  Bayesian analysis of canopy transpiration models: A test of posterior parameter means against measurements , 2012 .

[65]  C. Tucker,et al.  Enhancement of Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel by Vegetation Interaction. , 1999, Science.

[66]  A. Shmida,et al.  Hot desert ecosystems: an integrated view , 1986 .

[67]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate‐carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) , 2008 .

[68]  Louis S. Santiago,et al.  Multiple strategies for drought survival among woody plant species , 2016 .

[69]  J. A. Vrugt,et al.  Bayesian Inference of Tree Water Relations Using a Soil-Tree-Atmosphere Continuum Model☆ , 2013 .