The Production and Price Impact of Biotech Corn, Canola, and Soybean Crops

The effect of no longer using the current widely used biotech traits in the corn, soybean, and canola sectors would probably impact negatively on both the global supply and utilization of these crops, their derivatives and related markets for grain and oilseeds. The modelling suggests that average global yields would fall for corn, soybeans, and canola and despite some likely ‘compensatory’ additional plantings of these three crops, there would be a net fall in global production of the three crops of 14 million tonnes. Global trade and consumption of these crops/derivatives would also be expected to fall. The production and consumption of other grains such as wheat, barley, and sorghum and oilseeds—notably sunflower—would also be affected. Overall, net production of grains and oilseeds (and derivatives) would fall by 17.7 million tonnes, and global consumption would fall by 15.4 million tonnes. The cost of consumption would also increase by $20 billion (3.6%) relative to the total cost of consumption of the (higher) biotech-inclusive level of world consumption. The impacts identified in this analysis are, however, probably conservative, reflecting the limitations of the methodology used. In particular, the limited research conducted to date into the impact of the cost-reducing effect of biotechnology (notably in herbicide-tolerant [HT] soybeans) on prices suggests that the price effects identified in this article represent only part of the total price impact of the technology. Introduction