Influence factors and prediction on area change of lake Hongjiannao

By the analysis of water balance,we studied the main reasons of lake area change.Result showed that continuous shrinkage of the lake from the late 1990s was due to the reducing of surface water into the lake.The main factors led into the phenomenon contained that the increase of economic and social water use,the interception of reservoir projects,the increase of water consumption in vegetation constructions,the overexploitation of groundwater.We predicted the future lake area under different water use levels combining the reservoirs supply water conditions and considering appropriately reduce farmland irrigation area in order to reduce groundwater overexploitation: if the reserve projects in basin supply water to external basin under present level,considering reducing 781.3×104m3 overexploitation groundwater in basin,the lake area would maintain 35.6km2 that is less 2.6km2 than 2010.If under planned supply water capacity level,the lake area would reduce to 22.0km2.