The UK economy in the late 1980s: trends and prospects

The British economy in the 1980s has been characterized by structural changes which, in their scale and rapidity, are in many ways unprecedented. Moreover further change is in store, since the impending decline of North Sea oil output will have significant effects on Britian's external position, and possibly on public finance. This paper (a) reviews past and prospective structural changes, partiularly in terms of their effects on the balance of payments, (b) outlines and critically discusses the government's view of the situation and its development, (c) discusses some likely adjustment problems over the medium term, and (d) considers the options and constraints for policy in the late 1980s and early 1990s.