A CMOPSO based multi-objective optimization of renewable energy planning: Case of Turkey

Abstract In this paper, a two step multi-objective optimization framework of renewable energy planning is proposed for Turkey. In the first step, optimization process is performed and in the second step a multi-criteria decision making based selection strategy is applied to select a solution from non-dominated solution set. The objectives are selected as minimization of levelized cost of electricity plan and maximization of short term electricity generation from renewable energy resources. The optimization model considers different cases of renewable energy investment expenditures and the optimal use of resource availability according to renewable energy related targets of the country and estimated cost reduction due to technological learning. For optimization purposes, a state-of-the-art metaheuristic Competitive Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimizer (CMOPSO) is used. Results reveal that the 2023 targets of Turkey for hydroelectric, and biomass power plants are not optimal with any of the renewable energy investment case. In addition, solar photovoltaics and onshore wind energy should be the most preferred renewable resources. The findings of this paper can help decision makers not only to set optimized and reliable energy-related goals for Turkey but also to estimate the most suitable time for diffusion of offshore wind energy technology which is not currently under operation.

[1]  M. Thring World Energy Outlook , 1977 .

[2]  Fabian Scheller,et al.  Energy system optimization at the municipal level: An analysis of modeling approaches and challenges , 2019, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[3]  Selcuk Cebi,et al.  A comparative analysis for multiattribute selection among renewable energy alternatives using fuzzy axiomatic design and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process , 2009 .

[4]  Abdelkrim Liazid,et al.  A multi-criteria approach to rank renewables for the Algerian electricity system , 2017 .

[5]  E. Muela,et al.  Fuzzy possibilistic model for medium-term power generation planning with environmental criteria , 2007 .

[6]  Ümran Şengül,et al.  Fuzzy TOPSIS method for ranking renewable energy supply systems in Turkey , 2015 .

[7]  Razman Mat Tahar,et al.  Selection of renewable energy sources for sustainable development of electricity generation system using analytic hierarchy process: A case of Malaysia , 2014 .

[8]  Mustafa Ozcan,et al.  The role of renewables in increasing Turkey's self-sufficiency in electrical energy , 2018 .

[9]  Christopher W. Zobel,et al.  An optimization model for regional renewable energy development , 2012 .

[10]  Yaochu Jin,et al.  A competitive mechanism based multi-objective particle swarm optimizer with fast convergence , 2018, Inf. Sci..

[11]  Paula Varandas Ferreira,et al.  Generation expansion planning with high share of renewables of variable output , 2017 .

[12]  Goran Krajačić,et al.  Long-term energy planning of Croatian power system using multi-objective optimization with focus on renewable energy and integration of electric vehicles , 2016 .

[13]  Cengiz Kahraman,et al.  Multicriteria renewable energy planning using an integrated fuzzy VIKOR & AHP methodology: The case of Istanbul , 2010 .

[14]  Ronald R. Yager,et al.  A procedure for ordering fuzzy subsets of the unit interval , 1981, Inf. Sci..

[15]  Gülçin Büyüközkan,et al.  Evaluation of Renewable Energy Resources in Turkey using an integrated MCDM approach with linguistic interval fuzzy preference relations , 2017 .

[16]  Ting Zhang,et al.  Evaluation of renewable power sources using a fuzzy MCDM based on cumulative prospect theory: A case in China , 2018 .

[17]  Cengiz Kahraman,et al.  A fuzzy multicriteria methodology for selection among energy alternatives , 2010, Expert Syst. Appl..

[18]  E. Jochem,et al.  Introduction to Energy Systems Modelling , 2012 .

[19]  Eric W. Stein,et al.  A comprehensive multi-criteria model to rank electric energy production technologies , 2013 .

[20]  Guohe Huang,et al.  A fuzzy-stochastic simulation-optimization model for planning electric power systems with considering peak-electricity demand: A case study of Qingdao, China , 2016 .

[21]  Shahriar Shafiee,et al.  When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished , 2009 .

[22]  Firas Basim Ismail,et al.  Uncertainty models for stochastic optimization in renewable energy applications , 2020, Renewable Energy.

[23]  Rahul B. Hiremath,et al.  Decentralized energy planning; modeling and application—a review , 2007 .

[24]  Li He,et al.  An inexact bi-level simulation–optimization model for conjunctive regional renewable energy planning and air pollution control for electric power generation systems , 2016 .