USE OF RISK ANALYSIS FOR THE EVALUATION OF DIFFERENT MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN SWORDFISH STOCK

SUMMARY The biological implications of different management measures concerning the Mediterranean swordfish stock were evaluated by means of simulations performed under the FLR framework. Six different scenarios were examined including seasonal closures and quota management. Recruitment was assumed to vary in levels either predicted by a Beverton-Holt stockrecruitment relationship or around a constant value (1990-1999 average). Catch misreporting was also included in the analysis. Simulations projected the levels of landings and spawning stock biomass for a period of 20 years. Results suggested that at least 4-month closures or quotas equal or less to the 80% of the mean 1995-2005 yield are needed to achieve significant (over 40%) SSB increases. The risk of stock collapse is relatively high in case of “no measures” or with quotas that are up to the mean yield of the last decade, but it is severely reduced being less than 10% even with a short two-month closure that does lead to stock rebuilding. RESUME